9842 Lum Ln · Houston, TX 77078

$128,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 927 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1968 6,791 sqft lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $173k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS, INVESTORS. NO HOA. Priced to sell. Updated windows. In a culdesac, with a huge backyard. Please verify room dimensions. This is a diamond in the rough. A Hidden Gem. Bring your offers. Will not last long

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Huge backyard
• Culdesac

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• HUGE BACKYARD
• CULDESAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $128k implies a 653% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,436 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,117
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: -26.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9305 Caddo Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	950 (+2%)	18mo	$130,000	$137	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,645
• Equity at exit: $53,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $29,317
• Equity at exit: $80,475

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,461/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $104,436

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$855	$1.09	2d	8	0.31mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$950	$1.30	24d	2	0.41mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	43d	1	0.47mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.47mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	20d	1	0.57mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $128,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-04-17
    price $128,000 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    INVESTORS, INVESTORS. NO HOA. Priced to sell. Updated windows. In a culdesac, with a huge backyard. Please verify room dimensions. This is a diamond in the rough. A Hidden Gem. Bring your offers. Will not last long

13. 2026-04-08
    listed $140,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    INVESTORS, INVESTORS. NO HOA. Priced to sell. Updated windows. In a culdesac, with a huge backyard. Please verify room dimensions. This is a diamond in the rough. A Hidden Gem. Bring your offers. Will not last long

14. 2026-04-07
    historical
15. 2025-10-27
    price $140,000
16. 2025-10-01
    listed $143,000 Active
17. 2025-09-30
    historical
18. 2025-07-15
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-06-24
    status Pending
20. 2025-06-23
    status Pending
21. 2025-03-19
    listed $143,000 Active
22. 2025-03-18
    historical
23. 2025-01-01
    price $143,000
24. 2024-07-01
    listed $143,900 Active
25. 2024-06-30
    historical
26. 2024-02-08
    listed $143,900 Active
27. 2024-02-07
    historical
28. 2023-09-10
    listed $143,900 Active
29. 2015-06-09
    soldstatus
30. 1994-08-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,461 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,461 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$3,461
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,069
• − Management: −$1,069
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$905
• After-tax cash flow: $-696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+652.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $128,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $143,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $143,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $143,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $143,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed $143,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-10 Listed $143,900 HARMLS
• 2015-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,461 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.