1664 Elkhart Cir · Tavares, FL 32778

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1986 5,900 sqft lot Est $288k · 25% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. * * * * * * * * Fully Updated 3-Bedroom Home in Lake Frances Estates * * * HOA DUES PAID FOR THE FIRST YEAR * * * Own Your Land! * * * * * * * * * Welcome to easy Florida living in Lake Frances Estates, a highly desirable 55+ community just 0.6 miles from downtown Tavares. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,620 sq ft of comfortable living space and the rare benefit of land ownership—no lot rent. Inside, the home has been fully updated within the last 5 years, starting with a spacious kitchen featuring new cabinets and granite countertops (2020), abundant counter space, and multiple ea

Key facts

• Fully updated home
• Spacious kitchen
• New cabinets

Tags

• FULLY UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MULTIPLE EATING AREAS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $52; Total annual fees: $624
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $52); Association amenities include clubhouse and pool; Senior community; Pets allowed with number limits; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space); Asphalt driveway on public maintained road
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story (one level); Faces north; Crawlspace with pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Side porch; Rain gutters; Chain link fence; Boat ramp (private) with lake access; Lake view (Lake Frances)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds; Living room wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $215k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,360
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1405 Skyline Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+1%)	3mo	$230,000	$140	86
1560 Skyline Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,471 (-9%)	4mo	$265,000	$180	73
1520 Skyline Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+9%)	8mo	$315,000	$178	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,451
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $48,563
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $609	-5% $548	+0% $487	+5% $426	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $398	+0% $487	+5% $577	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $596	-0.5pp $542	base $487	+0.5pp $432	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
336 Shorewood Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,215	$1.27	17d	1	0.44mi
1003 Dora Ave Unit A Tavares, FL	3.0	3.5	1788	$2,400	$1.34	24d	1	0.47mi
1003 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	3.0	3.5	1680	$2,400	$1.43	15d	1	0.47mi
2225 Cypress Ct Unit 2C Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,000	$1.50	24d	1	0.49mi
814 N Saint Clair Abrams Ave Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,275	$0.68	24d	1	0.58mi
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	17d	1	0.65mi
1129 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	24d	1	0.78mi
1147 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,345	$1.10	24d	3	0.79mi
1019 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,395	$1.12	24d	1	0.80mi
1057 E Caroline St Unit 31 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	24d	1	0.81mi
1075 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,395	$1.12	24d	1	0.81mi
1111 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	24d	1	0.82mi
1108 Longville Cir Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,150	$1.36	5d	1	1.01mi
1792 Henin Cir Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	1.02mi
1224 Kellogg Dr Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,345	$1.10	24d	1	1.07mi
2213 Merry Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,990	$1.25	4d	1	1.08mi
2460 Ann Rou Rd Unit 606 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,750	$1.50	18d	1	1.17mi
2296 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,215	$1.17	3d	1	1.27mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.36mi
2698 Rowan St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,399	$1.49	3d	1	1.38mi
1105 Fig St Tavares, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	15d	1	1.44mi
1105 Fig St Tavares, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	13d	1	1.44mi
3342 Landing View Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,995	$1.18	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   price $215,000
3. 2026-01-03
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2018-05-31
   soldstatus $99,000
5. 2011-05-19
   soldstatus $65,000
6. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,324/yr (+$110/mo · 287.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $2,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$586
• After-tax cash flow: $5,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.