441 SW Laura Ln · Grain Valley, MO 64029

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2008 9,147 sqft lot Est $276k · 28% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this home located at 441 SW Laura Ln in Grain Valley, MO. Offering approximately 1,690 square feet of comfortable living area, this property features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a convenient one-car attached garage, and an inviting front porch perfect for relaxation. The exterior showcases attractive stone accents on a generous lot of over 9,000 square feet, providing plenty of outdoor space. Situated in a desirable Jackson County neighborhood with easy access to local schools and amenities, this well-maintained home combines functional style with modern convenience.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Front porch
• Stone accents

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• STONE ACCENTS
• GENEROUS LOT
• JACKSON COUNTY NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,690 (source: public records); Age: 16–20 years
• HOA & community: No association fees; No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One-story (ranch)
• Construction: Frame construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Lot size about 0.21 acres; Flood plain status: Unknown

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Has cooling (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Basement: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($695/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Grain Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in MO, #3,383 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Grain Valley R-V (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,305 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 SW Graystone Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	1mo	$270,000	$221	89
448 Laura Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+10%)	2mo	$305,000	$222	78
1007 SW Blue Branch Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-3%)	2mo	$280,000	$231	73
205 Cross Creek Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+1%)	10mo	$285,000	$225	69
401 S Minter Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+0%)	7mo	$289,000	$230	62
1005 SW Blue Branch Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+3%)	14mo	$269,500	$209	62
202 E Kirby Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,271 (+2%)	1mo	$255,000	$201	60
1003 Stonebrook Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-4%)	15mo	$275,000	$229	57
901 Stone Brook Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,371 (+10%)	11mo	$294,900	$215	52
1004 Stone Brook Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+7%)	16mo	$290,000	$216	50
614 SW Tisha Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+9%)	11mo	$283,000	$207	47
205 SW Cross Creek Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+14%)	9mo	$299,900	$210	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,049
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $20,622
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64029

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,907/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,740

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 SW Foxtail Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,450	$1.56	44d	1	0.47mi
317 SW Blue Branch Dr Unit 317 Grain Valley, MO	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,400	$1.39	44d	1	0.55mi
200 NW Parker Dr Grain Valley, MO	2.0	1.0	960	$1,205	$1.26	44d	1	0.62mi
1015 NW Willow Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,395	$0.88	44d	1	0.67mi
1220 NW Sni-A-Bar Blvd Grain Valley, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1170	$1,900	$1.62	2d	1	0.69mi
1120 NW Willow Dr Grain Valley, MO	2.0	2.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	15d	1	0.72mi
207 NW Sni a Bar Pkwy Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	930	$1,450	$1.56	24d	1	0.75mi
630 Yennie St Grain Valley, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,819	$1.73	2d	15	1.17mi
930 NW Scenic Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	24d	1	1.24mi
1312 Valley Woods Ct Unit D Grain Valley, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,125	$1.04	44d	1	1.28mi
1108 NW Golfview Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	1.5	1364	$1,890	$1.39	8d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 586-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,907 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,907 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,907
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grain Valley R-V
• NCES district ID: 2913080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2888
• State rank: #30 of 324 in MO

Livability — Grain Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #3383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grain Valley, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 21,961
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 21,961
• Household income: $91,704
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 228.5568
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,907 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.