525 Surrey Ln · Burleson, TX 76028

$270,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1996 0.55 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming oppportunity in Burleson! Situated on a spacious 0.55 acre lot in this peaceful subdivision, this property offers endless potential. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and school within Burleson ISD, easy access to I-35 and HWY 174.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Easy access to i-35
• Peaceful subdivision

Tags

• 0.55 ACRE LOT
• PEACEFUL SUBDIVISION
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-35
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 174

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-808/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,535 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,547
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-59,576
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 687
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,099/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $258,101

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $9	+0% $-67	+5% $-144	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-145	+0% $-67	+5% $10	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $1	base $-67	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2025-10-23
    status Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Charming oppportunity in Burleson! Situated on a spacious 0.55 acre lot in this peaceful subdivision, this property offers endless potential. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and school within Burleson ISD, easy access to I-35 and HWY 174.

16. 2025-07-18
    listed $270,000 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Charming oppportunity in Burleson! Situated on a spacious 0.55 acre lot in this peaceful subdivision, this property offers endless potential. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and school within Burleson ISD, easy access to I-35 and HWY 174.

17. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus
18. 2016-07-01
    soldstatus Sold 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Lot available to build your home on , or for a mobile home. Old mobile home structure is on property and has 0 value. Property does convey minerals. Excludes travel camper. Buyer to verify all information.

19. 2016-06-26
    status Pending 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Lot available to build your home on , or for a mobile home. Old mobile home structure is on property and has 0 value. Property does convey minerals. Excludes travel camper. Buyer to verify all information.

20. 2016-05-12
    listed $43,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Lot available to build your home on , or for a mobile home. Old mobile home structure is on property and has 0 value. Property does convey minerals. Excludes travel camper. Buyer to verify all information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,842/yr (+$320/mo · 349.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,099
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+527.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2016-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-06-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-05-12 Listed $43,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,099 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.