47 Old Farm Rd · Barbourville, KY 40923

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 249 Days on market

Built 1979 0.50 ac lot $28/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knox County (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #116 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $45k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.53%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,218
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -72.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
271 Valentine Branch Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-11%)	13mo	$220,000	$157	62
242 Kelly Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-8%)	9mo	$153,000	$105	48
203 Dancey Branch Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+11%)	17mo	$142,500	$82	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $46,553
• Equity at exit: $23,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $108,861
• Equity at exit: $39,685

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40923

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $343

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 239 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 233 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 232 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 231 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 230 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    status Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

17. 2026-03-04
    status Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

18. 2026-03-02
    historical 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

19. 2026-03-02
    historical 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

20. 2026-01-22
    price $45,000 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description.

21. 2025-12-17
    price $45,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

22. 2025-10-02
    listed $49,000 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

23. 2025-10-02
    listed $49,000 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Looking for a renovation project or a great property to build your new home? Look no further! Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Barbourville and US 25 E, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for the investor or flipper. Property is selling by boundary deed description. This property is not habitable and would be a complete renovation or removal.

24. 2023-10-09
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 101.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,628
• After-tax cash flow: $5,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knox County
• NCES district ID: 2103150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $24,965
• Composite: 24.59/100
• National rank: #7636
• State rank: #116 of 165 in KY

Livability — Barbourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #13792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,012

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,741 people
• By 2030: 29,887 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 27,940 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 25,826 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 20,895 · -32.0%
• By 2100: 16,238 · -47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.1) · D 13.8% · R 85.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -71.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.1 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.7 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.36%
• Current HPI: 176.7863
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $45,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $45,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $49,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $49,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.