12776 W Obregon Dr · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 8,128 sqft lot Est $205k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 3 bedroom home, kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances. Ceramic tile floors Both bathrooms also have granite counters and tile floors. Vaulted ceilings make home seem spacious. Nicely landscaped. Large walled yard with RV gate. Great area!!

Key facts

• 8,128 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: Assessor
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Desert view
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front yard; Corner lot; Desert front landscaping; Desert back landscaping; Automatic front yard irrigation timer; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($831/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,068 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12776 W Obregon Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+0%)	0mo	$189,900	$166	100
12722 W Obregon Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+1%)	0mo	$209,123	$181	96
12625 W Benito Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+1%)	4mo	$209,990	$182	90
12600 W Diaz Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-1%)	2mo	$180,000	$159	82
12700 W Diaz Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-1%)	4mo	$215,000	$190	81
12649 W Benito Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	3mo	$231,990	$180	72
11703 W Madero Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+0%)	2mo	$230,000	$202	66
12478 W Cabrillo Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	1mo	$229,990	$178	66
12459 W Carousel Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	0mo	$225,000	$174	65
12383 W Delwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	3mo	$229,990	$178	60
12158 W Cabrillo Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	3mo	$234,990	$182	55
11752 W Loma Vista Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+7%)	2mo	$203,310	$166	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,441
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,664
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $875/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $123	+0% $69	+5% $15	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $8	+0% $69	+5% $130	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $118	base $69	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12503 W Madero Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	0d	1	0.20mi
11991 W Cabrillo Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,595	$1.11	26d	1	0.53mi
13185 S San Simon Rd Unit B Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,475	$1.13	4d	1	0.78mi
11176 W Cambria Cir Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	0d	1	1.05mi
10800 W Carousel Dr Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	1d	1	1.24mi
11188 W Ventana Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,675	$1.30	0d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-25
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2022-06-15
   soldstatus $257,500 Closed 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Move-in ready 3 bedroom home, kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances. Ceramic tile floors Both bathrooms also have granite counters and tile floors. Vaulted ceilings make home seem spacious. Nicely landscaped. Large walled yard with RV gate. Great area!!

4. 2022-06-15
   soldstatus $257,500

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Move-in ready 3 bedroom home, kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances. Ceramic tile floors Both bathrooms also have granite counters and tile floors. Vaulted ceilings make home seem spacious. Nicely landscaped. Large walled yard with RV gate. Great area!!

5. 2022-05-17
   listed Under Contract Accepting Backups 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Move-in ready 3 bedroom home, kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances. Ceramic tile floors Both bathrooms also have granite counters and tile floors. Vaulted ceilings make home seem spacious. Nicely landscaped. Large walled yard with RV gate. Great area!!

6. 2022-05-16
   listed $257,500 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Move-in ready 3 bedroom home, kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances. Ceramic tile floors Both bathrooms also have granite counters and tile floors. Vaulted ceilings make home seem spacious. Nicely landscaped. Large walled yard with RV gate. Great area!!

7. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $124,500 Closed 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

8. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $124,500

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

9. 2018-11-13
   status Pending 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

10. 2018-10-12
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

11. 2018-10-10
    status Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

12. 2018-10-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

13. 2018-09-28
    price $124,500 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

14. 2018-09-20
    listed $133,500 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Highly upgraded, clean and move in ready, 3 bedroom home! Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Flooring includes ceramic tile with medallions and laminated hardwood planks. The attractive 2-tone paint and vaulted ceilings create space and beauty. Both bathrooms include tile floors and granite countertops. Large walled yard has an RV gate for entry. make this your new home today! Many first time buyer programs are available. Ready for immediate move-in. Low priced solar lease creates energy savings. Look for the *3D-Tour*!

15. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus $99,500 Closed
16. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus $99,500
17. 2016-05-17
    status Pending
18. 2016-05-16
    price $99,900
19. 2016-05-11
    price $94,900
20. 2016-05-10
    status Active
21. 2016-04-28
    status Pending
22. 2016-04-28
    price $99,500
23. 2016-04-20
    price $97,500
24. 2016-03-01
    listed $99,900 Active
25. 2013-02-25
    historical
26. 2013-01-31
    listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $875 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,253 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$875
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+123.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-25 Listed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $257,500 Public Records
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) $257,500 ARMLS
• 2022-05-17 Listed — ARMLS
• 2022-05-16 Listed $257,500 ARMLS
• 2018-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $124,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-20 Sold (MLS) $124,500 ARMLS
• 2018-11-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-10-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-10-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-10-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-09-28 Price Changed $124,500 ARMLS
• 2018-09-20 Listed $133,500 ARMLS
• 2016-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $99,500 Public Records
• 2016-06-08 Sold (MLS) $99,500 ARMLS
• 2016-05-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2016-05-16 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2016-05-11 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2016-05-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2016-04-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2016-04-28 Price Changed $99,500 ARMLS
• 2016-04-20 Price Changed $97,500 ARMLS
• 2016-03-01 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2013-02-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-01-31 Listed $84,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $875 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.