15911 Thomas · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2005 2.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2.06 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: 4 garage spaces; 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Total of 2 housing units on the parcel; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified under 433a (foundation certification); Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Horse property; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Main entry on the first level; Has a view; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.64%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,062
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $70,170
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $550	+0% $494	+5% $438	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $404	+0% $494	+5% $584	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $594	-0.5pp $545	base $494	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15563 Laguna Seca Dr Apple Valley, CA	3.0	3.0	2052	$2,300	$1.12	4d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $199,000 Pending Sale 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,250 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,250 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $2,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $5,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $199,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,250 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.