555 Umbarger Rd #43 · San Jose, CA 95111

$309,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $353k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Invest in your future with this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after, all-age community of San Jose Verde. Built in 2001 and spanning approximately 1,110 square feet, this meticulously maintained residence features soaring vaulted ceilings, dual-pane windows for energy efficiency, and a modern open-concept kitchen complete with a convenient snack bar and tile-edged countertops. The split floor plan offers a generous master suite with a private bath and large closet, while the dedicated indoor laundry room and central heating/cooling provide the everyday comforts of a traditional home. Outside, you'll find a private 2-car carport and a charming wrap-around yard perfect for gardening or creating a quiet outdoor retreat. Located just minutes from The Plant shopping center and major Silicon Valley commuter routes, this home offers a monthly space rent of $1,686, making it an incredible opportunity for first-time buyers.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Open-concept kitchen
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRAL HEATING
• WRAP-AROUND YARD
• PRIVATE 2-CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park home serial numbers: 17308511A and 17308511B
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community pool; Recreation room; Sauna / spa / hot tub

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 3 vehicles (minimum); Assigned space number 43; Monthly space rent charged
• Utilities: Private co-op water; Community sewer/septic; Individual electric meters
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (park home)
• Construction: 1,116 living area (reported)
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Property listed as family park; Leased land for the park home site

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included in kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air cooling; Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Dining area within the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $301k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• East Side Union High (urban): math 53% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #69 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $310k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.43%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 Umbarger Rd #134	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+1%)	4mo	$371,000	$329	90
555 Umbarger Rd #124	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+5%)	4mo	$370,000	$316	89
555 Umbarger Rd #75	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,020 (-9%)	1mo	$330,000	$324	85
2855 Senter Rd #1	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+0%)	6mo	$258,000	$230	84
2600 Senter Rd #121	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+0%)	2mo	$430,000	$384	84
555 Umbarger Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	0mo	$368,000	$307	82
411 Lewis Rd #419	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-1%)	1mo	$348,000	$315	79
2600 Senter Rd #50	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+3%)	2mo	$400,000	$349	79
2580 Senter Rd #434	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-1%)	5mo	$366,000	$333	71
411 Lewis Rd #440	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	2mo	$205,000	$197	68
2855 Senter Rd #172	0.21mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	5mo	$205,000	$214	63
411 Lewis Rd #235	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	983 (-12%)	5mo	$255,000	$259	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-8,758
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $28,335
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95111

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Lewis Rd San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,551	$2.94	1d	1	0.58mi
88 Montecito Vista Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$2,691	$3.20	1d	1	0.87mi
995 Tully Rd San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0	819	$3,278	$4.00	1d	6	0.91mi
3129 Kenland Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1094	$3,450	$3.15	1d	1	0.93mi
287 Kenbrook Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$2,795	$2.76	1d	1	1.01mi
978 Summerplace Dr San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,395	$3.28	16d	1	1.24mi
1006 Summerplace Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,650	$3.42	1d	1	1.25mi
1068 Summershore Ct San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,500	$3.42	16d	1	1.29mi
2988 Grassina St #309 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,600	$3.44	1d	1	1.38mi
1746 Bevin Brook Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1201	$3,700	$3.08	1d	1	1.39mi
334 Olive Hill Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	3.0	1368	$4,150	$3.03	1d	1	1.41mi
2586 Tosca Way San Jose, CA	3.0	1.5	1176	$3,900	$3.32	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $309,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $309,900 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Invest in your future with this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after, all-age community of San Jose Verde. Built in 2001 and spanning approximately 1,110 square feet, this meticulously maintained residence features soaring vaulted ceilings, dual-pane windows for energy efficiency, and a modern open-concept kitchen complete with a convenient snack bar and tile-edged countertops. The split floor plan offers a generous master suite with a private bath and large closet, while the dedicated indoor laundry room and central heating/cooling provide the everyday comforts of a traditional home. Outside, you'll find a private 2-car carport and a charming wrap-around yard perfect for gardening or creating a quiet outdoor retreat. Located just minutes from The Plant shopping center and major Silicon Valley commuter routes, this home offers a monthly space rent of $1,686, making it an incredible opportunity for first-time buyers.

16. 2026-05-18
    listed $309,900 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Invest in your future with this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after, all-age community of San Jose Verde. Built in 2001 and spanning approximately 1,110 square feet, this meticulously maintained residence features soaring vaulted ceilings, dual-pane windows for energy efficiency, and a modern open-concept kitchen complete with a convenient snack bar and tile-edged countertops. The split floor plan offers a generous master suite with a private bath and large closet, while the dedicated indoor laundry room and central heating/cooling provide the everyday comforts of a traditional home. Outside, you'll find a private 2-car carport and a charming wrap-around yard perfect for gardening or creating a quiet outdoor retreat. Located just minutes from The Plant shopping center and major Silicon Valley commuter routes, this home offers a monthly space rent of $1,686, making it an incredible opportunity for first-time buyers.

17. 2026-04-05
    historical
18. 2025-10-10
    price
19. 2025-09-26
    price
20. 2025-08-22
    price
21. 2025-08-04
    listed Active
22. 2020-06-11
    soldstatus $162,500 Sold
23. 2020-06-03
    status Pending (Do Not Show)
24. 2020-05-01
    historical Contingent
25. 2020-03-22
    status Active
26. 2020-02-27
    historical Contingent
27. 2020-01-15
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,691/yr (+$141/mo · 254.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,115
• − Management: −$3,115
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable income: $4,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$989
• After-tax cash flow: $8,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Side Union High
• NCES district ID: 0611820
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $80,293
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #1278
• State rank: #69 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,202
• Household income: $101,435
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1808.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Asian 36% Two or more races 22% White 7% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Foreign-born: 45% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 40% Vietnamese 24% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1144.74%
• Current HPI: 339.7949
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+73.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $309,900 MLSListings
• 2026-05-18 Listed $309,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-04 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-06-11 Sold (MLS) $162,500 MLSListings
• 2020-06-03 Pending — MLSListings
• 2020-05-01 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2020-03-22 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2020-02-27 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2020-01-15 Listed $179,000 MLSListings

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2011): $664 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.