18330 Wards Fry #32 · East Sonora, CA 95370

$118,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $83k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18300 Wards Ferry Road Space #32, located in the Cascade Senior Mobile Home park. Do not miss the opportunity to see this beautiful single level spacious home with an open floor plan to include 2 large bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a good-sized living room area. This home has a nice open feeling. With several updates including new flooring, paint, ceiling fan and light fixtures. Enjoy your quiet backyard, with a beautiful stream running, an area for gardening, and a double shed for all your storage needs. There is a nice size area for an outdoor seating as well. Pride of ownership is evident here and makes this home an excellent place for someone new to call home.

Key facts

• Wildlife trails
• Seasonal creek
• New 30 year roof

Tags

• BACK DECK
• NEIGHBORING POND
• WILDLIFE TRAILS
• SEASONAL CREEK
• PROPANE TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEW 30 YEAR ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park: CASCADE ESTATES; Pets allowed; Park amenities include picnic area, RV parking and RV storage; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Free-standing range/oven; Refrigerator; Skylight in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (propane); Fireplace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dining area; Double pane windows; Skylight(s); Window coverings; Gas fireplace with gas starter
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas dryer hookup; 220-volt outlet; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $118k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.06%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18330 Wards Ferry Rd #59	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+8%)	1mo	$89,900	$80	80
18330 Wards Ferry Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+5%)	11mo	$25,000	$23	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,512
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $66,589
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $674	-5% $641	+0% $607	+5% $439	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $543	+0% $607	+5% $672	+10% $737
Rate	-1.0pp $667	-0.5pp $637	base $607	+0.5pp $577	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $118,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $118,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $118,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $118,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-04-08
   price $118,000
6. 2026-02-28
   price $120,000
7. 2026-01-01
   listed $125,000 Active
8. 2025-12-22
   historical
9. 2025-10-02
   status Active
10. 2025-09-18
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-09-17
    listed Active
12. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus $75,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Welcome to 18300 Wards Ferry Road Space #32, located in the Cascade Senior Mobile Home park. Do not miss the opportunity to see this beautiful single level spacious home with an open floor plan to include 2 large bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a good-sized living room area. This home has a nice open feeling. With several updates including new flooring, paint, ceiling fan and light fixtures. Enjoy your quiet backyard, with a beautiful stream running, an area for gardening, and a double shed for all your storage needs. There is a nice size area for an outdoor seating as well. Pride of ownership is evident here and makes this home an excellent place for someone new to call home.

13. 2020-11-25
    listed $75,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Welcome to 18300 Wards Ferry Road Space #32, located in the Cascade Senior Mobile Home park. Do not miss the opportunity to see this beautiful single level spacious home with an open floor plan to include 2 large bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a good-sized living room area. This home has a nice open feeling. With several updates including new flooring, paint, ceiling fan and light fixtures. Enjoy your quiet backyard, with a beautiful stream running, an area for gardening, and a double shed for all your storage needs. There is a nice size area for an outdoor seating as well. Pride of ownership is evident here and makes this home an excellent place for someone new to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 273.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $5,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $5,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — East Sonora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #17006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,373
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $118,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-01 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-18 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-17 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-11-25 Listed $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.