1302 S 21st St · Milwaukee, WI 53204

$104,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1895 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Vacant home owned by the Housing Authority - City of MilwaukeeCall for access during business hours 8am to 4:45pm M-FAccepted offers must be approved by the HACM Board of Commissioners, which meets on a monthly basis. At closing HACM will convey the property ''AS-IS'' without representations or warranties, expressed or implied.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1895

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,931/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 2357% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($719 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,440 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.23%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,406
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1302 S 21st St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,638 (0%)	0mo	$111,000	$68	100
1642 S Layton Blvd	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,657 (+1%)	3mo	$135,000	$81	70
1305 S 26th St	0.38mi	4/1.5	1,596 (-3%)	9mo	$218,500	$137	69
1579 S 21st St	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,792 (+9%)	6mo	$250,000	$140	59
1133 S Layton Blvd	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,783 (+9%)	6mo	$210,000	$118	59
2416 W Lapham St	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	8mo	$209,900	$141	57
1139 S 23rd St	0.19mi	4/1.5	1,866 (+14%)	11mo	$160,000	$86	57
1023 S 25th St	0.35mi	4/3.0	1,839 (+12%)	3mo	$270,000	$147	53
1224 S 25th St	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (-13%)	9mo	$60,000	$42	50
1722 S 15th St	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,474 (-10%)	12mo	$210,000	$142	43
927A S 11th St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,480 (-10%)	7mo	$190,000	$128	39
734 S 30th St	0.70mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,445 (-12%)	4mo	$200,000	$138	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $106,113
• Equity at exit: $93,691

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.22×
• Total profit: $268,403
• Equity at exit: $202,049

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53204

• Home prices YoY: 19.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1812 S 7th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.5	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	1.10mi
501 N 20th St Apt C Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	17d	1	1.26mi
3520 W Mount Vernon Ave Unit 3520 Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1279	$1,450	$1.13	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $104,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $8,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $7,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 39,996
• Household income: $45,934
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2357.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 35% White 15% Black 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 64.27%
• Current HPI: 403.236
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — METROMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $104,000 METROMLS