Plan Warrenton Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$478,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious two-story floor plan is perfect for modern family living. The main floor features an open-concept kitchen with a central island, seamlessly connecting to the dining area and family room, which opens to a cozy patio for outdoor enjoyment. The primary suite, located at the front of the home, offers a luxurious retreat with an ensuite bathroom. A study provides a quiet space for work or reading, and a convenient powder room is nearby. The two-car garage offers ample storage and parking. Upstairs, you'll find a large game room, perfect for entertainment, along with bedrooms two and three, which share access to a full bathroom. The open-to-below design enhances the sense of space and connection throughout the home, making it ideal for family gatherings and relaxation.

Key facts

• Central island
• Open-concept kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• COZY PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $478,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $488,352.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $479k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,830 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,352
• List price: $478,990
• Delta: -1.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,321 (-1%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	88
2628 Muirwood Way	0.08mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (-0%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	83
1604 Victoria Pl	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (-0%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	81
2736 Acadia Mews	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (-0%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	80
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (-0%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	78
2118 Newhall Rd	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,464 (+5%)	2mo	$495,000	$201	71
1629 Asbury Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,579 (+10%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	66
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,464 (+5%)	5mo	$565,475	$229	58
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+4%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	55
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,429 (+3%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	54
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,671 (+14%)	1mo	$575,000	$215	44
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (-13%)	2mo	$594,000	$290	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-136,321
• Equity at exit: $72,815

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-217,340
• Equity at exit: $42,224

Cash invested: $136,739 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 103 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.1 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $530,990 ($218/sqft)
• Median days on market: 267 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$610 /mo · $7,325/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,272

Max offer price $380,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-408	-5% $-577	+0% $-746	+5% $-914	+10% $-1,083
Rent	-10% $-1,008	-5% $-877	+0% $-746	+5% $-614	+10% $-483
Rate	-1.0pp $-500	-0.5pp $-621	base $-746	+0.5pp $-872	+1.0pp $-1,001

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,088
• Closing costs: $14,651
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.11mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.11mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.13mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.11mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.12mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.16mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.23mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.27mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.30mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.41mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,648	$1.91	3d	16	1.42mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	37d	1	1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	73d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $478,990 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $478,990 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $478,990 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $478,990 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $478,990 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $478,990 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $478,990 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $478,990 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $478,990 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $478,990 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $478,990 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $478,990 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $478,990 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $478,990 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $478,990 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $478,990 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $478,990 Active 245 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $478,990 Active 244 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $478,990 Active 243 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $478,990 Active 242 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $478,990 Active 241 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $478,990 Active 240 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $478,990 Active 239 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $478,990 Active 238 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $478,990 Active 237 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $478,990 Active 235 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $478,990 Active 234 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $478,990 Active 233 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $478,990 Active 232 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $478,990 Active 231 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $478,990 Active 230 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $475,990 Active 229 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $475,990 Active 228 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $475,990 Active 227 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $475,990 Active 226 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $475,990 Active 225 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $475,990 Active 224 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $475,990 Active 222 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $475,990 Active 220 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $475,990 Active 219 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $475,990 Active 216 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $475,990 Active 215 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $475,990 Active 214 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $475,990 Active 213 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $475,990 Active 211 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $475,990 Active 207 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $475,990 Active 206 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $475,990 Active 205 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $472,990 Active 202 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $472,990 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,355
• − Property taxes: −$7,325
• − Insurance: −$2,442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,195
• − Management: −$3,195
• − Depreciation: −$14,207
• Taxable loss: −$17,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,267
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This spacious two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Resale New kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

---

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $472,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $487,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $502,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $497,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Listed $512,990 Zillow