7 Arroyo Santiago · Odessa, TX 79762

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,839 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1985 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This townhome is 1,839 sq. ft. with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The floor plan is semi open and has tons of natural light. There are high ceilings, plush carpet, and plantation shutters throughout the home. Enjoy private patios in both the front and back of the house, with easy access to the alley. The home is located in a quiet neighborhood, within walking distance of the Buffalo Wallow, perfect for morning/evening walks.

Key facts

• Walking distance
• Private patios
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIOS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALKING DISTANCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces (2 covered)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Residential townhouse/condo/patio
• Construction: Brick veneer, frame, and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,839 (sq. ft. omitted per instructions)
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Breakfast bar; Skylights; Shutters; Wood-burning fireplace in living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($389/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blanton El (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 502 students, 71% FRL); Nimitz Middle (math 29% / reading 36%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,303 students, 51% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,383 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,530
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,008
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $106	+0% $32	+5% $-41	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-50	+0% $32	+5% $115	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $99	base $32	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3312 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.47mi
3310 Tanglewood Ln Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,200	$1.27	22d	1	0.48mi
3916 Boulder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1935	$2,100	$1.09	22d	1	0.56mi
3904 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$1,445	$1.13	14d	1	0.78mi
3902 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,445	$1.13	14d	1	0.80mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	44d	1	0.85mi
3812 E Everglade Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	22d	1	0.86mi
5075 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$2,620	$2.35	14d	20	1.00mi
3420 Fairlane Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2164	$2,100	$0.97	22d	1	1.05mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	14d	1	1.12mi
4256 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,600	$1.27	22d	1	1.20mi
4424 Conley Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,500	$1.19	44d	1	1.27mi
4009 Brook Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$2,500	$1.06	44d	1	1.27mi
4009 New Orleans Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.27mi
4425 Conley Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,200	$1.39	22d	1	1.28mi
2801 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,800	$1.16	14d	1	1.31mi
2220 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	959	$1,770	$1.85	14d	7	1.35mi
2905 Byron Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,400	$1.32	14d	1	1.41mi
105 Quail Run Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,600	$1.67	44d	1	1.41mi
1334 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	2200	$2,000	$0.91	14d	1	1.42mi
4607 Garden Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,400	$1.24	22d	1	1.43mi
1326 French Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	1.43mi
2206 Medford Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2037	$2,350	$1.15	44d	1	1.46mi
2105 Congress St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,649	$1.39	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $260,000 Active
3. 2012-08-08
   soldstatus
4. 1993-04-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,054/yr (+$255/mo · 179.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $1,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — ODMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $260,000 ODMLS
• 2012-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,704 · -39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.