415 S College · Rosebud, TX 76570

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Est $180k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

-4 bedrooms -2 baths -Almost completely new remodel inside & amp; out -Central heat & amp; air -Oversized lot -Alley access Asking $145k No listing agents, owner to owner Owner financing available

Key facts

• Alley access
• New remodel
• Oversized lot

Tags

• NEW REMODEL
• OVERSIZED LOT
• ALLEY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#732 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Rosebud-Lott ISD (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #592 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,583 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,959
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 N 4th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-6%)	1mo	$249,900	$188	56
518 E Avenue G	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+7%)	4mo	$192,000	$127	54
305 N 4th St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (+11%)	19mo	$149,000	$95	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,983
• Equity at exit: $54,542

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $44,968
• Equity at exit: $76,555

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76570

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $145,000 Active 200-char remark
18. 2009-01-19
    soldstatus
19. 2008-07-21
    soldstatus
20. 2007-03-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,322/yr (+$194/mo · 700.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosebud-Lott ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,597
• Composite: 26.66/100
• National rank: #7167
• State rank: #592 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosebud

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #732
• US rank: #13643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosebud, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,506

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 33% Black 16% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 10% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.66%
• Current HPI: 164.6726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2009-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.