178 Thunderbird · Sandia, TX 78383

$189,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2000 0.89 ac lot Est $246k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious property located in Sandia, TX, just minutes from Lake Corpus Christi. The main home is a double-wide manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, central air and heat, and cathedral ceilings that create an open and inviting feel. Recent updates include a new HVAC system and a new roof, providing added comfort and peace of mind. Situated on five lots totaling approximately . 98 acres, this property offers plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living and future possibilities. In addition to the main home, there is an extra 420 sq ft guest quarters, ideal for visitors, workspace, or additional living space. The property also features two functional RV ho

Key facts

• Five lots
• New roof
• New hvac system

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• FIVE LOTS
• 420 SQ FT GUEST QUARTERS
• TWO FUNCTIONAL RV HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-272/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,389 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• George West ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,877 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,008
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Gallant Fox	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	8mo	$234,608	$161	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-32,282
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,181
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78383

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $186,002

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $31	+0% $-23	+5% $-76	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-81	+0% $-23	+5% $36	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $26	base $-23	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   historical
3. 2026-03-06
   listed $189,999 Active
4. 2025-07-12
   listed $199,000 Active
5. 2023-11-07
   listed $229,000 Active
6. 2021-08-11
   historical
7. 2021-08-09
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2021-08-09
   soldstatus
9. 2021-06-15
   status Pending
10. 2021-06-05
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2021-05-17
    listed $119,900 Active
12. 2020-02-10
    historical
13. 2019-09-27
    price $165,000
14. 2019-08-07
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,093/yr (+$174/mo · 151.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: George West ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820550
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,721
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2175
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sandia

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1389
• US rank: #23821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,306

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.06%
• Current HPI: 178.3727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-04-02 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $189,999 CBMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $199,000 CBMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $229,000 CBMLS
• 2021-08-11 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-09 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2021-06-15 Pending — CBMLS
• 2021-06-05 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2021-05-17 Listed $119,900 CBMLS
• 2020-02-10 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2019-09-27 Price Changed $165,000 CBMLS
• 2019-08-07 Listed $169,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.