6323 Lemon Balm Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$245,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 332 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,896 sqft lot $102/sqft · 21% below area Est $312k · 22% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Bank approved price* Step inside to discover an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, elegant finishes, and modern upgrades. The inviting living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and gourmet kitchen, featuring sleek cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. A guest suite with a full bath is conveniently located on the main floor, ideal for visitors or multi-generational living. Upstairs, a large game room offers the perfect retreat for movie nights or playtime, while the private primary suite impresses with a spa-like bath and generous walk-in closet. The fully fenced backyard provides a peaceful outdoor escape with plenty of room for relaxing, gardening, or weekend BBQs. Don’t miss your chance to make this exceptional property your own!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Guest suite
• Large game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GUEST SUITE
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,103
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -21.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Calamint Dr	0.05mi	5/4.0	2,300 (-4%)	6mo	$289,900	$126	85
6211 Borage St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,448 (+2%)	5mo	$249,900	$102	77
315 Ginseng Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,261 (-6%)	7mo	$262,500	$116	63
16127 Coral Bay St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	4mo	$270,000	$121	57
18823 Spokane Falls Trl	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,544 (+6%)	7mo	$315,940	$124	51
330 Binnacle Way	0.72mi	5/3.5	2,210 (-8%)	3mo	$240,000	$109	48
6111 Coleus St	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (-14%)	8mo	$275,000	$133	48
2507 Serrano Plains Trl	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,585 (+8%)	8mo	$299,190	$116	43
15815 Tall Barberry Ln	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,147 (-11%)	4mo	$369,717	$172	43
16411 Porpoise Ct	0.57mi	5/3.0	2,102 (-13%)	7mo	$265,000	$126	42
18803 Sage Riv	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,058 (-14%)	2mo	$399,990	$194	39
2502 Serrano Plains Trl	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,764 (+15%)	9mo	$322,890	$117	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-53,640
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-73,773
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $304,500 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,929/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650

Max offer price $215,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-96	+0% $-166	+5% $-235	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-262	+0% $-166	+5% $-69	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-103	base $-166	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6206 Lovage Ave Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2708	$1,995	$0.74	41d	1	0.16mi
6006 Lovage Ave Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2261	$1,965	$0.87	71d	1	0.30mi
6019 Burnet Bend Ave Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2461	$1,995	$0.81	5d	1	0.35mi
16214 Port O Call St Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,299	$0.90	0d	1	0.65mi
330 Harbor Mist Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$2,030	$0.91	76d	1	0.91mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	98d	1	1.32mi
1202 Vilamoura Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,300	$1.00	59d	1	1.39mi
15806 Afore Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2372	$1,951	$0.82	111d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $245,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $245,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $245,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $255,500 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $255,500 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $255,500 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $255,500 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $255,500 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $255,500 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $255,500 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $255,500 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $255,500 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $255,500 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $255,500 Active 313 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $255,500 Active 312 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $255,500 Active 310 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $255,500 Active 308 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $255,500 Active 306 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $255,500 Active 305 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $255,500 Active 304 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $255,500 Active 302 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $255,500 Active 301 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $255,500 Active 300 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $255,500 Active 299 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $255,500 Active 298 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $255,500 Active 297 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $255,500 Active 296 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $255,500 Active 295 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $255,500 Active 294 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $255,500 Active 293 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $255,500 Active 292 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $255,500 Active 291 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $255,500 Active 290 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $255,500 Active 289 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $255,500 Active 288 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $255,500 Active 287 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $255,500 Active 286 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $255,500 Active 285 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $255,500 Active 283 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $255,500 Active 282 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $255,500 Active 281 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $255,500 Active 280 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $255,500 Active 277 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $255,500 Active 276 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $255,500 Active 275 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $255,500 Active 274 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $255,500 Active 272 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,500 Active 270 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,500 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,929 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,929 · $661/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$7,929
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,025–$36,075 screening

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale minor kitchen appliances — upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosby, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $255,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $261,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $302,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $306,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $320,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+85.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,929 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.