CashFlowRE
Sign in Sign up
416 Hi Cir W Unit A
D Composite 42.71
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.5/30.0
  • Appreciation +5.5/10.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.5/10.0
  • DSCR +0.8/10.0

$350,000

416 Hi Cir W Unit A · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market
Built 2015 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot Garage $227/sqft · 25% below area Est $488k · 28% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Blending thoughtful craftsmanship with effortless Hill Country living, this beautifully built duplex offers a refined take on low-maintenance living in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from Lake LBJ and nearby resort amenities. The residence features inviting interiors with quality finishes, open-concept living, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces—designed for comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere, while private outdoor living provides the perfect setting for morning coffee or relaxed evenings under the Texas sky.

Key facts

  • Inviting interiors
  • Quality finishes
  • Open-concept living

Tags

HILL COUNTRY LIVINGLOW-MAINTENANCE LIVINGINVITING INTERIORSQUALITY FINISHESOPEN-CONCEPT LIVINGPRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (30.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (34.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $228k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.2% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 1406 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
  • Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
  • By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $228,398 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.65%
Cap rate
4.26%
Cash-on-cash
-7.27%
DSCR
0.68
GRM
12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$487,869
List price
$350,000
Delta
-28.26%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
17 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
502B Hi Circle West 0.01mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,416 (-8%) 14mo $259,000 $183 69
502A Hi Circle West 0.03mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,416 (-8%) 14mo $259,000 $183 68
1315 Hi Cir N Unit A 0.62mi 3/2.0 1,606 (+4%) 17mo $496,250 $309 50
1315 Hi Cir N Unit B 0.63mi 3/2.0 1,663 (+8%) 15mo $496,250 $298 45
2806 Oak Ridge Dr 0.83mi 3/2.0 1,566 (+2%) 21mo $435,000 $278 45
118 Longhorn 0.94mi 3/2.0 1,775 (+15%) 1mo $373,000 $210 39
3201 Oak Ridge Dr 1.03mi 3/3.0 1,655 (+7%) 22mo $429,000 $259 31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-6.5%
Equity multiple
0.67×
Total profit
$-32,193
Equity at exit
$118,490
10-year hold
IRR
-1.0%
Equity multiple
0.88×
Total profit
$-12,073
Equity at exit
$156,696

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
10 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply
30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$449,700 ($271/sqft)
Median days on market
121 d
This list price
10% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78657

Home prices YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1406
Price-to-rent
12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,284 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,835
Tax from tax record
$388 /mo · $4,656/yr
Insurance
$146
HOA
$29
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$480
Net cashflow
$-594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,036
Max offer price $245,088
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-396 -5% $-495 +0% $-594 +5% $-693 +10% $-792
Rent -10% $-774 -5% $-684 +0% $-594 +5% $-504 +10% $-413
Rate -1.0pp $-418 -0.5pp $-505 base $-594 +0.5pp $-685 +1.0pp $-777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$87,500
Closing costs
$10,500
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 33 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1964 $2,450 $1.25 92d 1 0.03mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1823 $2,595 $1.42 72d 1 0.22mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1088 $1,600 $1.47 72d 1 0.38mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1248 $1,200 $0.96 92d 1 0.48mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1248 $1,500 $1.20 92d 1 0.48mi
105 Star #6 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.5 1156 $1,200 $1.04 16d 1 0.51mi
2924 Candace Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX 4.0 3.5 2064 $3,800 $1.84 9d 1 0.79mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 3.0 1764 $2,900 $1.64 92d 1 0.81mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX 4.0 3.0 1850 $2,700 $1.46 92d 1 0.85mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1632 $2,100 $1.29 72d 1 0.91mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 3.0 2038 $2,200 $1.08 92d 1 0.96mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 1.5 1160 $1,900 $1.64 16d 1 1.03mi
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 3.0 1655 $3,600 $2.18 13d 1 1.05mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.5 1160 $1,995 $1.72 72d 1 1.07mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1900 $1,550 $0.82 72d 1 1.08mi
516 Free Rein Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1708 $2,200 $1.29 16d 1 1.09mi
300 Out Yonder #170 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1321 $1,300 $0.98 16d 1 1.10mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1321 $1,400 $1.06 16d 1 1.10mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1321 $1,275 $0.97 92d 1 1.10mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1998 $2,700 $1.35 46d 1 1.16mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1333 $1,550 $1.16 16d 1 1.18mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1885 $2,850 $1.51 72d 1 1.20mi
138 Rivalto Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1501 $3,000 $2.00 92d 1 1.22mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 2154 $2,700 $1.25 92d 1 1.33mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 962 $1,349 $1.40 72d 2 1.35mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1141 $1,349 $1.18 72d 1 1.35mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1243 $2,150 $1.73 59d 1 1.46mi
306 Enclave Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1621 $2,850 $1.76 13d 1 1.46mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1243 $1,800 $1.45 42d 1 1.46mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1250 $2,500 $2.00 72d 1 1.47mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1344 $3,500 $2.60 16d 1 1.49mi
101 W Bank Horseshoe Bay, TX 3.0 2.0 1602 $2,500 $1.56 16d 1 1.49mi
108 Tuscan Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX 2.0 2.0 1443 $3,250 $2.25 13d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Member of HL Property Owners AssociationAnnual HOA fee of $352 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

Parking
Attached garageTotal of 4 parking spaces
Utilities
Electricity availableSewer available
Home design
Has view
Construction
Stone veneer and stucco exteriorMetal roofSlab foundationBuilt per public records
Exterior features
Covered patioPatioWrought iron fencingLandscaped yardAutomatic sprinklers

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric rangeDisposalIcemakerMicrowave
Bedrooms
3 main-level bedrooms
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Interior features
Has a viewResale condition

Listing history 28 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 78 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 77 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $350,000 Active 76 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 75 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 74 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 73 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 70 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 69 DOM
  9. 2026-07-29
    days on market $350,000 Active 68 DOM
  10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $350,000 Active 66 DOM
  11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $350,000 Active 64 DOM
  12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $350,000 Active 63 DOM
  13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $350,000 Active 62 DOM
  14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $350,000 Active 61 DOM
  15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $350,000 Active 60 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $350,000 Active 57 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $350,000 Active 53 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $350,000 Active 52 DOM
  21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
  23. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
  24. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
  25. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
  26. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Under Contract 1272-char remark
  27. 2026-04-13
    listed $350,000 Active 1272-char remark
  28. 2023-09-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$4,656 · $388/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,405 · $534/mo
Expected delta
+$1,749/yr (+$146/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$27,408
− Mortgage interest
−$19,605
− Property taxes
−$4,656
− Insurance
−$1,750
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,193
− Management
−$2,193
− HOA
−$348
− Depreciation
−$10,182
Taxable loss
−$13,518
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,244
After-tax cash flow
$-3,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,715–$23,145 screening

This beautifully built duplex in Horseshoe Bay offers a refined and low-maintenance living experience with inviting interiors and a seamless flow between spaces. The property is in good condition with minimal updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
  • Both Updating window treatments — Improves natural light and aesthetics
  • Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Packsaddle El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Llano J H D TX #530/1,662 Nat'l #5,067/14,009 High Llano H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Llano ISD
NCES district ID
4827810
Math proficiency
40% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$46,746
Composite
35.42/100
National rank
#4940
State rank
#359 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

Score
66/100
State rank
#625
US rank
#11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Horseshoe Bay, TX
County
Llano County · 20,847 people
City population
7,591
Metro
nan
Population (ZIP)
7,591
Household income
$91,452
Rent vs Own
18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden
8% of renters

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
20,847 people
By 2030
21,350 · +2.4%
By 2040
22,281 · +6.9%
By 2050
23,173 · +11.2%
By 2075
25,526 · +22.4%
By 2100
25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity
White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14%
Common ancestry
Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

2024 margin
Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
2008→2024 swing
-8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
All cycles
2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

Civics

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,656 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…