416 Hi Cir W Unit A · Horseshoe Bay, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 60.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +6.5/30.0
- Appreciation +5.5/10.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.5/10.0
- DSCR +0.8/10.0
$350,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Blending thoughtful craftsmanship with effortless Hill Country living, this beautifully built duplex offers a refined take on low-maintenance living in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from Lake LBJ and nearby resort amenities. The residence features inviting interiors with quality finishes, open-concept living, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces—designed for comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere, while private outdoor living provides the perfect setting for morning coffee or relaxed evenings under the Texas sky.
Key facts
- Inviting interiors
- Quality finishes
- Open-concept living
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (30.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (34.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $228k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.2% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 1406 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
- Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.65% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.26%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.27%
- DSCR
- 0.68
- GRM
- 12.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $487,869
- List price
- $350,000
- Delta
- -28.26%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 17 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 502B Hi Circle West | 0.01mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,416 (-8%) | 14mo | $259,000 | $183 | 69 |
| 502A Hi Circle West | 0.03mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,416 (-8%) | 14mo | $259,000 | $183 | 68 |
| 1315 Hi Cir N Unit A | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 | 1,606 (+4%) | 17mo | $496,250 | $309 | 50 |
| 1315 Hi Cir N Unit B | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 | 1,663 (+8%) | 15mo | $496,250 | $298 | 45 |
| 2806 Oak Ridge Dr | 0.83mi | 3/2.0 | 1,566 (+2%) | 21mo | $435,000 | $278 | 45 |
| 118 Longhorn | 0.94mi | 3/2.0 | 1,775 (+15%) | 1mo | $373,000 | $210 | 39 |
| 3201 Oak Ridge Dr | 1.03mi | 3/3.0 | 1,655 (+7%) | 22mo | $429,000 | $259 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -6.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.67×
- Total profit
- $-32,193
- Equity at exit
- $118,490
- IRR
- -1.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.88×
- Total profit
- $-12,073
- Equity at exit
- $156,696
Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 10 active · 5 under contract
- Months of supply
- 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $449,700 ($271/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 121 d
- This list price
- 10% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +16.6% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78657
- Home prices YoY
- 0.4%
- Active inventory
- 1406
- Price-to-rent
- 12.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,284 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,835
- Tax from tax record
- −$388 /mo · $4,656/yr
- Insurance
- −$146
- HOA
- −$29
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$480
- Net cashflow
- $-594
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-396 | -5% $-495 | +0% $-594 | +5% $-693 | +10% $-792 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-774 | -5% $-684 | +0% $-594 | +5% $-504 | +10% $-413 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-418 | -0.5pp $-505 | base $-594 | +0.5pp $-685 | +1.0pp $-777 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $87,500
- Closing costs
- $10,500
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 33 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1964 | $2,450 | $1.25 | 92d | 1 | 0.03mi |
| 203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1823 | $2,595 | $1.42 | 72d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1088 | $1,600 | $1.47 | 72d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1248 | $1,200 | $0.96 | 92d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1248 | $1,500 | $1.20 | 92d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 105 Star #6 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1156 | $1,200 | $1.04 | 16d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 2924 Candace Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2064 | $3,800 | $1.84 | 9d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1764 | $2,900 | $1.64 | 92d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1850 | $2,700 | $1.46 | 92d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1632 | $2,100 | $1.29 | 72d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2038 | $2,200 | $1.08 | 92d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1160 | $1,900 | $1.64 | 16d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1655 | $3,600 | $2.18 | 13d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1160 | $1,995 | $1.72 | 72d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1900 | $1,550 | $0.82 | 72d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 516 Free Rein Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1708 | $2,200 | $1.29 | 16d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 300 Out Yonder #170 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1321 | $1,300 | $0.98 | 16d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1321 | $1,400 | $1.06 | 16d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1321 | $1,275 | $0.97 | 92d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1998 | $2,700 | $1.35 | 46d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1333 | $1,550 | $1.16 | 16d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1885 | $2,850 | $1.51 | 72d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 138 Rivalto Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1501 | $3,000 | $2.00 | 92d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2154 | $2,700 | $1.25 | 92d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 962 | $1,349 | $1.40 | 72d | 2 | 1.35mi |
| 400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1141 | $1,349 | $1.18 | 72d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1243 | $2,150 | $1.73 | 59d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 306 Enclave Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1621 | $2,850 | $1.76 | 13d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1243 | $1,800 | $1.45 | 42d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $2,500 | $2.00 | 72d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1344 | $3,500 | $2.60 | 16d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 101 W Bank Horseshoe Bay, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1602 | $2,500 | $1.56 | 16d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 108 Tuscan Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1443 | $3,250 | $2.25 | 13d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Member of HL Property Owners AssociationAnnual HOA fee of $352 covering common area maintenance
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garageTotal of 4 parking spaces
- Utilities
- Electricity availableSewer available
- Home design
- Has view
- Construction
- Stone veneer and stucco exteriorMetal roofSlab foundationBuilt per public records
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPatioWrought iron fencingLandscaped yardAutomatic sprinklers
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherElectric rangeDisposalIcemakerMicrowave
- Bedrooms
- 3 main-level bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Interior features
- Has a viewResale condition
Listing history 28 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $350,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $350,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $350,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $350,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $350,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $350,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $350,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $350,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $350,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $350,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $350,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $350,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $350,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $350,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $350,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $350,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $350,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $350,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-05-13historical Active Under Contract 1272-char remark
-
2026-04-13$350,000 Active 1272-char remark
-
2023-09-26soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,656 · $388/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $6,405 · $534/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,749/yr (+$146/mo · 37.6%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $27,408
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,605
- − Property taxes
- −$4,656
- − Insurance
- −$1,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,193
- − Management
- −$2,193
- − HOA
- −$348
- − Depreciation
- −$10,182
- Taxable loss
- −$13,518
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,244
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,882/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo
This beautifully built duplex in Horseshoe Bay offers a refined and low-maintenance living experience with inviting interiors and a seamless flow between spaces. The property is in good condition with minimal updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
- Both Updating window treatments — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Llano ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4827810
- Math proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,746
- Composite
- 35.42/100
- National rank
- #4940
- State rank
- #359 of 826 in TX
Livability — Horseshoe Bay
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #625
- US rank
- #11913
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Horseshoe Bay, TX
- County
- Llano County · 20,847 people
- City population
- 7,591
- Metro
- nan
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,591
- Household income
- $91,452
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 8% of renters
Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 20,847 people
- By 2030
- 21,350 · +2.4%
- By 2040
- 22,281 · +6.9%
- By 2050
- 23,173 · +11.2%
- By 2075
- 25,526 · +22.4%
- By 2100
- 25,866 · +24.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (80%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Llano
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.95%
- Current HPI
- 229.9918
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- nan
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Property tax history
+4.6%/yrLatest (2026): $4,656 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…