416 Hi Cir W Unit A · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Blending thoughtful craftsmanship with effortless Hill Country living, this beautifully built duplex offers a refined take on low-maintenance living in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from Lake LBJ and nearby resort amenities. Each residence features inviting interiors with quality finishes, open-concept living, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces—designed for comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere, while private outdoor living provides the perfect setting for morning coffee or relaxed evenings under the Texas sky. The design balances connection and privacy, allowing the residence to live like a standalone home. Whether you’re seeking full-time living, a part-time Hill Country retreat, or an income-producing opportunity, this property offers exceptional flexibility. Live comfortably while generating rental income, with the added potential to expand as the adjoining unit will soon be available for purchase—offering a rare chance to own both sides of the duplex. Upon application and acceptance, join Horseshoe Bay Resort for access to multiple golf courses, tennis and pickleball, pools, marina, and both casual and fine dining.

Key facts

• Inviting interiors
• Quality finishes
• Open-concept living

Tags

• HILL COUNTRY LIVING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• INVITING INTERIORS
• QUALITY FINISHES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $340k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,519/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $30,418
• Equity at exit: $118,490

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $123,109
• Equity at exit: $156,696

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,570/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,027

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,520
Total (2 units)			$3,519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	43d	1	0.03mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	23d	1	0.22mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	23d	1	0.38mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	0.48mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.48mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	43d	1	0.81mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	43d	1	0.85mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.91mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	43d	1	0.96mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	43d	1	1.02mi
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1655	$3,775	$2.28	4d	1	1.05mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	23d	1	1.07mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	23d	1	1.08mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	43d	1	1.10mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	4d	1	1.16mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	43d	1	1.18mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	23d	1	1.20mi
138 Rivalto Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1501	$3,000	$2.00	43d	1	1.22mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	43d	1	1.33mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	23d	1	1.35mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	23d	2	1.35mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	10d	1	1.46mi
306 Enclave Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,850	$1.76	12d	1	1.46mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	12d	1	1.46mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	43d	1	1.46mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Under Contract 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Blending thoughtful craftsmanship with effortless Hill Country living, this beautifully built duplex offers a refined take on low-maintenance living in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from Lake LBJ and nearby resort amenities. Each residence features inviting interiors with quality finishes, open-concept living, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces—designed for comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere, while private outdoor living provides the perfect setting for morning coffee or relaxed evenings under the Texas sky. The design balances connection and privacy, allowing the residence to live like a standalone home. Whether you’re seeking full-time living, a part-time Hill Country retreat, or an income-producing opportunity, this property offers exceptional flexibility. Live comfortably while generating rental income, with the added potential to expand as the adjoining unit will soon be available for purchase—offering a rare chance to own both sides of the duplex. Upon application and acceptance, join Horseshoe Bay Resort for access to multiple golf courses, tennis and pickleball, pools, marina, and both casual and fine dining.

5. 2026-04-13
   listed $350,000 Active 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Blending thoughtful craftsmanship with effortless Hill Country living, this beautifully built duplex offers a refined take on low-maintenance living in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from Lake LBJ and nearby resort amenities. Each residence features inviting interiors with quality finishes, open-concept living, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces—designed for comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere, while private outdoor living provides the perfect setting for morning coffee or relaxed evenings under the Texas sky. The design balances connection and privacy, allowing the residence to live like a standalone home. Whether you’re seeking full-time living, a part-time Hill Country retreat, or an income-producing opportunity, this property offers exceptional flexibility. Live comfortably while generating rental income, with the added potential to expand as the adjoining unit will soon be available for purchase—offering a rare chance to own both sides of the duplex. Upon application and acceptance, join Horseshoe Bay Resort for access to multiple golf courses, tennis and pickleball, pools, marina, and both casual and fine dining.

6. 2023-09-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,570 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,835/yr (+$153/mo · 40.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,570
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,378
• − Management: −$3,378
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236
• After-tax cash flow: $4,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully built duplex in Horseshoe Bay offers a refined and low-maintenance living experience with inviting interiors and a seamless flow between spaces. The property is in good condition with minimal updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Updating window treatments — Improves natural light and aesthetics
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Updating window treatments — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $350,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,570 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.