104 S Colpitts Blvd · Fort Stockton, TX 79735

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1970 10,846 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid opportunity for an owner occupant or investor looking for instant equity. This home features tile flooring throughout, functional layout, and strong rental potential. With a little cosmetic updating, this could be a great flip, rental, or affordable primary residence. COME CHECK OUT THIS GREAT DEAL!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Pecos; Country: United States; High geocode confidence
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Property is not attached; Accessibility features not present
• Construction: Built in 1970
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.2490 acre); Subdivision: Orient; Use GPS for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Built-in features; One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 2; One level
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#532 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Stockton ISD (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #709 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fort Stockton Alamo El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 324 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Pecos County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pecos County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.11%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $13,333
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $39,212
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79735

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $361	-5% $347	+0% $333	+5% $319	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $294	+0% $333	+5% $371	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $345	base $333	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 N Missouri St Unit A Fort Stockton, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$975	$1.07	44d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $49,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $58,000 Active
18. 2025-08-28
    price $45,000
19. 2006-12-19
    soldstatus
20. 2004-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $3,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $3,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Stockton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,194
• Composite: 21.81/100
• National rank: #8247
• State rank: #709 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Stockton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #10399

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Stockton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,962

Population outlook (Pecos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,291 people
• By 2030: 17,999 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 19,729 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 21,655 · +25.2%
• By 2075: 26,049 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 27,196 · +57.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 23% White 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pecos

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 27.0% · R 71.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+21.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.34%
• Current HPI: 138.1106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $58,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $45,000 ODMLS
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.