4668 Amelia Cir · Valdosta, GA 31632

$379,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,151 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2016 10,018 sqft lot Est $387k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-kept 4BR/2BA home in Grove Pointe offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open living area features a vaulted ceiling and flows into a formal dining space accented with a coffered ceiling. The kitchen includes granite countertops, island seating, a farmhouse sink, double-door pantry, and generous cabinetry, all positioned conveniently between the dining room and bright rear sunroom. The primary suite has been updated with new LVP flooring in the bedroom and closet, tray ceiling lighting, a custom walk-in closet, separate granite vanities, a corner soaking tub, and a large tiled shower with dual shower heads. Three additional bedrooms are privately situated off a separate hallway boasting new LVP as well, while the second bath offers granite countertops, double sinks, and a linen closet. The sunroom overlooks a privacy-fenced backyard with an expanded patio, firepit, and wood storage area. Additional features include a mud bench and sink in the laundry room, excellent garage storage, and an extra parking pad. Located near the community pools and park, this home combines comfort, storage, and convenient neighborhood amenities.

Key facts

• Thoughtful upgrades
• Formal dining space
• Open living area

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• THOUGHTFUL UPGRADES
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FORMAL DINING SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FARMHOUSE SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-534 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 62% / reading 53%, grade C+, #150 of 1,228 statewide, top 12%, 937 students, 41% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,809 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,180
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4683 Amelia Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,187 (+2%)	2mo	$377,500	$173	90
4596 Amelia Cir	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,072 (-4%)	2mo	$331,500	$160	84
3045 Houser Way	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,125 (-1%)	2mo	$412,400	$194	82
5051 Hatfield Cir	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+7%)	3mo	$403,650	$176	76
4693 San Saba Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,127 (-1%)	1mo	$419,000	$197	74
4732 Amelia Cir	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+10%)	3mo	$390,000	$166	74
3001 Houser Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,050 (-5%)	3mo	$389,500	$190	72
4868 Brown Cat Cir	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,300 (+7%)	1mo	$414,900	$180	72
4860 Brown Cat Cir	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,242 (+4%)	2mo	$425,000	$190	72
4961 Hatfield Cir	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,350 (+9%)	2mo	$434,900	$185	68
4720 San Saba Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,324 (+8%)	2mo	$398,900	$172	61
4501 Chickasaw Cir	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+5%)	1mo	$370,000	$163	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $172,848
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $535,582
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,279/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,093

Max offer price $285,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-426	+0% $-534	+5% $-641	+10% $-749
Rent	-10% $-725	-5% $-629	+0% $-534	+5% $-438	+10% $-342
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-437	base $-534	+0.5pp $-632	+1.0pp $-732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	23d	1	0.13mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	23d	1	0.35mi
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	46d	1	0.58mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	23d	1	0.60mi
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	23d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   This well-kept 4BR/2BA home in Grove Pointe offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open living area features a vaulted ceiling and flows into a formal dining space accented with a coffered ceiling. The kitchen includes granite countertops, island seating, a farmhouse sink, double-door pantry, and generous cabinetry, all positioned conveniently between the dining room and bright rear sunroom. The primary suite has been updated with new LVP flooring in the bedroom and closet, tray ceiling lighting, a custom walk-in closet, separate granite vanities, a corner soaking tub, and a large tiled shower with dual shower heads. Three additional bedrooms are privately situated off a separate hallway boasting new LVP as well, while the second bath offers granite countertops, double sinks, and a linen closet. The sunroom overlooks a privacy-fenced backyard with an expanded patio, firepit, and wood storage area. Additional features include a mud bench and sink in the laundry room, excellent garage storage, and an extra parking pad. Located near the community pools and park, this home combines comfort, storage, and convenient neighborhood amenities.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   This well-kept 4BR/2BA home in Grove Pointe offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open living area features a vaulted ceiling and flows into a formal dining space accented with a coffered ceiling. The kitchen includes granite countertops, island seating, a farmhouse sink, double-door pantry, and generous cabinetry, all positioned conveniently between the dining room and bright rear sunroom. The primary suite has been updated with new LVP flooring in the bedroom and closet, tray ceiling lighting, a custom walk-in closet, separate granite vanities, a corner soaking tub, and a large tiled shower with dual shower heads. Three additional bedrooms are privately situated off a separate hallway boasting new LVP as well, while the second bath offers granite countertops, double sinks, and a linen closet. The sunroom overlooks a privacy-fenced backyard with an expanded patio, firepit, and wood storage area. Additional features include a mud bench and sink in the laundry room, excellent garage storage, and an extra parking pad. Located near the community pools and park, this home combines comfort, storage, and convenient neighborhood amenities.

3. 2026-02-17
   listed $379,900 Active 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   This well-kept 4BR/2BA home in Grove Pointe offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open living area features a vaulted ceiling and flows into a formal dining space accented with a coffered ceiling. The kitchen includes granite countertops, island seating, a farmhouse sink, double-door pantry, and generous cabinetry, all positioned conveniently between the dining room and bright rear sunroom. The primary suite has been updated with new LVP flooring in the bedroom and closet, tray ceiling lighting, a custom walk-in closet, separate granite vanities, a corner soaking tub, and a large tiled shower with dual shower heads. Three additional bedrooms are privately situated off a separate hallway boasting new LVP as well, while the second bath offers granite countertops, double sinks, and a linen closet. The sunroom overlooks a privacy-fenced backyard with an expanded patio, firepit, and wood storage area. Additional features include a mud bench and sink in the laundry room, excellent garage storage, and an extra parking pad. Located near the community pools and park, this home combines comfort, storage, and convenient neighborhood amenities.

4. 2026-02-17
   listed $379,900 New

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   This well-kept 4BR/2BA home in Grove Pointe offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open living area features a vaulted ceiling and flows into a formal dining space accented with a coffered ceiling. The kitchen includes granite countertops, island seating, a farmhouse sink, double-door pantry, and generous cabinetry, all positioned conveniently between the dining room and bright rear sunroom. The primary suite has been updated with new LVP flooring in the bedroom and closet, tray ceiling lighting, a custom walk-in closet, separate granite vanities, a corner soaking tub, and a large tiled shower with dual shower heads. Three additional bedrooms are privately situated off a separate hallway boasting new LVP as well, while the second bath offers granite countertops, double sinks, and a linen closet. The sunroom overlooks a privacy-fenced backyard with an expanded patio, firepit, and wood storage area. Additional features include a mud bench and sink in the laundry room, excellent garage storage, and an extra parking pad. Located near the community pools and park, this home combines comfort, storage, and convenient neighborhood amenities.

5. 2022-05-04
   soldstatus $333,750
6. 2022-05-03
   soldstatus $333,750
7. 2022-03-10
   listed $333,750
8. 2019-10-01
   soldstatus $256,900
9. 2019-09-27
   soldstatus $256,900
10. 2019-08-10
    listed $259,900
11. 2018-05-03
    soldstatus $245,000
12. 2018-05-01
    soldstatus $245,000
13. 2018-02-23
    listed $249,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,495 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$3,279
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$13,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+52.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $379,900 SGMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $379,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $333,750 Public Records
• 2022-05-03 Sold (MLS) $333,750 SGMLS
• 2022-03-10 Listed $333,750 SGMLS
• 2019-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $256,900 Public Records
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $256,900 SGMLS
• 2019-08-10 Listed $259,900 SGMLS
• 2018-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-01 Sold (MLS) $245,000 SGMLS
• 2018-02-23 Listed $249,500 SGMLS

Property tax history

+21.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,279 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.