10395 SE 159th St · The Villages, FL 34491

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1979 0.33 ac lot $85/sqft · 24% below area Est $103k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.33 acres (approx. 95 x 150); Living area reported as 924 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Stem wall foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.15%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,490
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -23.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16630 SE 104th Ave Rd	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	936 (+1%)	4mo	$26,000	$28	55
10175 SE Sunset Harbor Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	920 (-0%)	12mo	$100,000	$109	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $30,818
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $83,030
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $663

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $729	-5% $707	+0% $685	+5% $662	+10% $640
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $624	+0% $685	+5% $745	+10% $806
Rate	-1.0pp $725	-0.5pp $705	base $685	+0.5pp $664	+1.0pp $643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $79,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    status $79,000 Pending 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $79,000 Active 395-char remark
18. 2024-07-03
    soldstatus $127,000 Closed 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

19. 2024-05-27
    status Pending 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

20. 2024-05-25
    price $125,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

21. 2024-04-08
    status Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

22. 2024-03-06
    status Pending 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

23. 2024-03-04
    price $117,500 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

24. 2024-02-22
    listed $129,900 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Well maintained 2/1 Mobile home on . 33 acres. New A/C, New main electrical box, metal roof, new back deck, nice big front porch, orange tree, shed and lots of cabinets in kitchen. Close to Little Lake Weir.

25. 2011-05-05
    soldstatus $25,000

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Seasonal, year round or rental unit. North of the Villages, walking distance to Lake, 2 bedroom mobile has been updated w/ roofover, central a/c + more. Open front porch, fruit trees. Eat-in kitchen, furnished. Move right in.

26. 2011-03-07
    listed $25,000

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Seasonal, year round or rental unit. North of the Villages, walking distance to Lake, 2 bedroom mobile has been updated w/ roofover, central a/c + more. Open front porch, fruit trees. Eat-in kitchen, furnished. Move right in.

27. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $6,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+338.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Sold (MLS) $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $117,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-22 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-05 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-07 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $917 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.