123 Daylily Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$199,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,072 sqft · Land · 115 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 8756120 - Built by Brohn Homes - Ready Now! ~ Welcome home to 123 Daylily Drive, a cozy two-story home in Elgin's premier and attainable Harvest Ridge master planned community. This 2-bed, 2.5-bath home is perfect for roommates, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a place to call home with a smaller footprint. Enjoy an open-concept living area on the first floor with wood-look vinyl flooring and an L-shaped kitchen with durable 3cm granite countertops, a gas range, a corner pantry, and a window over the sink overlooking the backyard. Coordinating light brown shaker-style cabinets with nickel hardware throughout create a cohesive and elevated feel. Laundry day is made e

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Corner pantry
• Laundry closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• 3CM GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• CORNER PANTRY
• LAUNDRY CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $115,374
• Equity at exit: $180,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $335,431
• Equity at exit: $388,537

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $154	+0% $97	+5% $41	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $22	+0% $97	+5% $172	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $148	base $97	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	0.72mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.73mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	0.78mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	0.82mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,633	$1.74	2d	6	0.89mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	0.90mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   listed $199,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,323/yr (+$110/mo · 56.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$512
• After-tax cash flow: $1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $199,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,337 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.