17436 SE 81st Newberry Ct · The Villages, FL 32162

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2002 3,485 sqft lot Est $285k · 24% under $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice, TURNKEY, with Southern Lifestyle furnishings, 2/2 Patio Villa in the Village of Chatham. This lovely villa has berber carpet throughout the living, dining and both bedrooms with vinyl flooring in the kitchen and baths. The open kitchen has bisque cabinets with a gas stove, eat-in area and solar tube. A solar tube has also been added to the guest bath as well as a sliding enclosure on the tub/shower. There are wood faux blinds throughout the entire home -- the screened lanai has indoor-outdoor carpet. This original owner also added gutters, beautiful landscaping, extra insulation, pulldown attic stairs and a full home surge protector! Located close to Nancy Lopez Country Club and very convenient for shopping! BOND IS PAID!

Key facts

• Spacious side patios
• Screened lanai
• 3,485 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• SPACIOUS FRONT PATIOS
• SPACIOUS SIDE PATIOS
• CHARMING WHITE PICKET FENCE
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual association fees reported
• Financial info: Other annual assessment applies; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association amenities include pool and recreational facilities; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, golf carts allowed, golf, playground, pool, sidewalks, special community restrictions, tennis courts; Association also has vehicle and fence restrictions, pickleball, shuffleboard and trails; Pets allowed; Total monthly association fee reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with garage door opener — 18x24; Driveway; Golf cart parking; Ground level parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story (one level); Faces east; PUD zoning; CDD community; Senior community
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as COLONY model
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Near golf course; Paved surroundings

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room and dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,411/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $215k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.32%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,748
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17395 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,202 (+3%)	0mo	$229,900	$191	87
8385 SE 173rd Hendricks Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,177 (+1%)	10mo	$295,000	$251	78
17400 SE 77th Sycamore Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,198 (+3%)	8mo	$239,000	$199	70
17415 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,071 (-8%)	10mo	$229,900	$215	66
16952 SE 81st Charlesfort Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,163 (-0%)	20mo	$245,000	$211	61
17126 SE 78th Larchmont Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,229 (+5%)	14mo	$352,000	$286	61
17385 SE 76th Champion Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,125 (-4%)	13mo	$305,000	$271	58
1842 Captiva Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-2%)	16mo	$280,000	$244	53
1812 Sanibel Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,229 (+5%)	5mo	$301,000	$245	48
1843 Captiva Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,333 (+14%)	21mo	$289,000	$217	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $36,616
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $133,493
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,444/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	21d	1	0.10mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	21d	1	0.16mi
17442 SE 79th Lovewood Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,500	$3.92	21d	1	0.24mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	0.46mi
7630 SE 174th Gaillard Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,500	$3.56	21d	1	0.54mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	1.14mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	1.35mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	1.43mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	1.45mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	1.46mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	21d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $215,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,444
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,274
• − Management: −$3,274
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $10,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $10,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-18 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-06 Listed $127,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,444 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.