3600 Americana Dr · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$384,690

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,266 sqft · Land · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 6,969 sqft lot $12/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER OFFERING UP TO $20,000 IN CLOSING COSTS! LOW SPECIAL RATES AVAILABLE! Call us today! Welcome to Hyland Trail, located in desirable Green Cove Springs. Enjoy planned resort-style amenities with low HOA. Located near great schools, shopping, and dining, Green Cove Springs offers scenic St. Johns River access, parks, and an easy commute around Jacksonville. Come see the Tilden, a beautifully designed 5BR/3BA open-concept home. Features include a chef's kitchen with stainless steel appliances, white cabinetry, and quartz countertops, opening to a spacious gathering room and covered lanai--perfect for entertaining. The private owner's suite offers a spa-like bath with dual vanities,

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Electric range
• Dishwasher

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE ELEVATION
• ELECTRIC RANGE
• MICROWAVE
• DISHWASHER
• WHITE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,269 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-95,281
• Equity at exit: $57,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-142,550
• Equity at exit: $33,261

Cash invested: $107,713 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,017
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,368/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,127

Max offer price $311,517

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-305	+0% $-414	+5% $-523	+10% $-632
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-517	+0% $-414	+5% $-311	+10% $-209
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-316	base $-414	+0.5pp $-514	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,172
• Closing costs: $11,541
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1111 Calla Glen Ln Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1980	$2,160	$1.09	3d	1	0.52mi
3268 Avalon Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,230	$1.27	4d	1	0.68mi
2621 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,135	$1.14	5d	1	1.12mi
2653 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,005	$1.22	9d	1	1.18mi
2506 Creekfront Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,554	$1.56	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $384,690
3. 2026-03-27
   price $389,690
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $393,690 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,368
• − Insurance: −$1,923
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$11,191
• Taxable loss: −$11,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $384,690 realMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $389,690 realMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $393,690 realMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,368 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.