8889 Bay 16th St Unit 1C · New York, NY 11214

$249,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Condo · 44 Days on market

Built 1949 ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-Bedroom Co-op in the Heart of Bath Beach Approximately 750 sq. ft. , this bright one-bedroom unit offers comfortable living in a vibrant neighborhood. Ideally located just steps from public transportation and a variety of charming local shops and eateries. Enjoy easy access to a public park located directly across the street—perfect for outdoor relaxation. A fantastic opportunity to own in a well-established co-op community!

Key facts

• Public park
• Local shops
• Built 1949

Tags

• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• LOCAL SHOPS
• PUBLIC PARK

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $249,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,940/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 6028% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.95%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $60,041
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $217,585
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11214

• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $1,392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 19C Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	544	$3,600	$6.62	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 7E Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	948	$5,250	$5.54	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 9A Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	889	$5,200	$5.85	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 8B Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	889	$5,000	$5.62	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 18B Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	889	$5,300	$5.96	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 13E Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	948	$5,550	$5.85	19d	1	0.82mi
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 6A Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	889	$5,125	$5.76	24d	1	0.82mi
1131 86th St #4 Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	550	$2,350	$4.27	24d	1	1.06mi
63 Bay 37th St Unit 1R Brooklyn, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,100	$3.44	24d	1	1.11mi
9718 Fort Hamilton Pkwy #3 Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	24d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-15
   price $249,000
3. 2025-09-09
   listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,782
• − Management: −$3,782
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $13,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,250
• After-tax cash flow: $13,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 89,397
• Household income: $65,895
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6028.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 26% English-only · Chinese 28% Russian/Polish/Slavic 15% Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.55%
• Current HPI: 276.0804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Pending — BNYMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $249,000 BNYMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $275,000 BNYMLS