11433 Tobaggon Trl · Black Jack, MO 63033

$214,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1968 9,125 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the desirable Hathaway Trails community. This residence offers a traditional layout that provides a classic sense of separation and structure throughout the living spaces. The heart of the home features a functional, eat-in kitchen updated with stainless-steel appliances and durable granite countertops. Adding to the home's versatility is a partially finished basement, offering excellent potential for additional storage, a hobby space, or future customization to fit your needs. The location is a standout feature, providing easy access to local shopping, dining, and major highways, making for a convenient daily commute and effortle

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Granite countertops
• 9,125 sq ft lot

Tags

• HATHAWAY TRAILS COMMUNITY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Hathaway Trails 2 Homeowners Association; Annual HOA fee of $215 (includes other services)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Water connected; Electric service listed as other
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story house; Residence facing unspecified direction
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Full, unfinished concrete basement
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Rain gutters; Level lot; Asphalt/paved road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (two on the main level, one on the lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($689/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,246 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,257
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: 2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11675 Helenoak Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+0%)	12mo	$245,000	$146	70
4461 Rhine Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,607 (-4%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	64
19 Bridekirk Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$135	63
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (-8%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	51
11588 Galba Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-7%)	13mo	$200,000	$129	51
11875 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,802 (+8%)	4mo	$269,000	$149	48
4471 Rhine Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (-8%)	7mo	$245,000	$161	47
4451 Rhine Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-15%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	46
11027 Landseer Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	13mo	$165,000	$103	46
1 Welwyn Ct	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+11%)	3mo	$200,000	$108	44
11015 Landseer Dr	0.67mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,893 (+14%)	9mo	$130,000	$69	32
5 Calderabby Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,893 (+14%)	12mo	$274,900	$145	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $129,883
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $401,928
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,817/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,860

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.38mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.52mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	0.54mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	0.91mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.99mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	2d	1	1.03mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	2d	1	1.04mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	22d	1	1.05mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.10mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.10mi
10606 Kilbourn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,395	$0.66	44d	1	1.18mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $214,900 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $214,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $219,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $219,900 Active 755-char remark
15. 2025-03-04
    historical
16. 2025-02-21
    price $220,000
17. 2025-01-24
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2024-11-26
    status Active
19. 2024-11-23
    historical
20. 2024-11-16
    price $219,900
21. 2024-10-19
    price $229,900
22. 2024-09-20
    price $235,000
23. 2024-08-26
    listed $245,000 Active
24. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $208,000
25. 2022-05-18
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2022-02-18
    status Pending
27. 2022-02-08
    listed $196,000 Active
28. 2021-08-05
    soldstatus $178,800
29. 2019-11-15
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2019-11-14
    status Pending
31. 2019-11-13
    status Active
32. 2019-10-19
    status Pending
33. 2019-10-14
    listed $86,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$2,817
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$2,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $214,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $220,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Listed $225,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Price Changed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $235,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-26 Listed $245,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-08 Listed $196,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $178,800 Public Records
• 2019-11-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-13 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-14 Listed $86,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,817 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.