151 Deer River Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 305 Days on market

Built 2018 0.50 ac lot $144/sqft · 17% below area Est $210k · 17% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

Key facts

• Half acre
• Canyon lake access
• Hill country living

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• CANYON LAKE ACCESS
• HILL COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 654 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,883
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -19.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Las Hadas	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$179,900	$141	60
152 Hill Gdn	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	16mo	$169,999	$160	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,923
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,099
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $245	+0% $195	+5% $146	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $129	+0% $195	+5% $262	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $240	base $195	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2519 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	25d	1	0.72mi
2519 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	16d	1	0.72mi
2455 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,550	$1.24	44d	1	0.77mi
208 Crestview Ln Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	16d	1	0.81mi
752 Cimarron Unit B Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	901	$1,245	$1.38	44d	1	0.81mi
184 Crestview Ln Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,495	$1.30	44d	1	0.82mi
418 Cimarron Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,595	$1.46	25d	1	0.90mi
418 Cimarron Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,600	$1.47	16d	1	0.90mi
2381 Cypress Gardens Blvd Spring Branch, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	44d	1	1.29mi
229 High Dr Unit A Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,500	$1.17	5d	1	1.38mi
229 High Dr Unit B Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,690	$1.32	44d	1	1.38mi
109 High Dr Spring Branch, TX	2.0	3.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	1.43mi
107 Virginia Way Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,600	$1.24	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 634-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $168,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

17. 2026-04-07
    status Back on Market 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

18. 2026-03-31
    historical 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

19. 2026-02-13
    price $170,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

20. 2026-01-15
    price $184,499 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

21. 2025-12-10
    status Back on Market 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

22. 2025-12-04
    historical
23. 2025-11-13
    price $175,000
24. 2025-11-12
    price $175,000
25. 2025-08-20
    listed $180,000 Active
26. 2025-08-14
    price $180,000
27. 2025-08-04
    listed $185,000 New
28. 2025-07-31
    historical 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

29. 2025-07-09
    price $185,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

30. 2025-06-17
    price $186,500 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

31. 2025-05-22
    listed $187,500 New 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home on Half an Acre, Minutes from Canyon Lake! Discover this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, built in 2020, nestled on a spacious half-acre lot in Spring Branch, TX. With 1216 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern convenience and a peaceful, country feel.Located less than 10 minutes from Canyon Lake access, this property is ideal for lake lovers, weekend getaways, or full-time living. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a prime investment opportunity, this home offers the best of Hill Country living.

32. 2025-04-22
    historical
33. 2025-04-18
    status Back on Market
34. 2025-01-15
    historical
35. 2024-11-24
    price $197,000
36. 2024-05-15
    listed $200,000 New
37. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus
39. 2023-07-28
    status Pending
40. 2023-07-05
    historical Active Option
41. 2023-07-05
    price $185,000
42. 2023-06-13
    listed $190,000 New
43. 2018-06-05
    soldstatus
44. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus
45. 2011-03-22
    soldstatus
46. 2010-07-13
    historical
47. 2010-06-07
    soldstatus
48. 2010-01-22
    listed
49. 1988-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,403/yr (+$117/mo · 77.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$125
• After-tax cash flow: $2,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $168,000 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $170,000 LERA
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $184,499 LERA
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $175,000 LERA
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $175,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $180,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $180,000 LERA
• 2025-08-04 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $185,000 LERA
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $186,500 LERA
• 2025-05-22 Listed $187,500 LERA
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-11-24 Price Changed $197,000 LERA
• 2024-05-15 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-28 Pending — LERA
• 2023-07-05 Contingent — LERA
• 2023-07-05 Price Changed $185,000 LERA
• 2023-06-13 Listed $190,000 LERA
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-13 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-01-22 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1988-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,800 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.