3011 Sky Ct · Stockton Bend, TX 76049

$174,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2001 6,490 sqft lot $162/sqft · 15% below area Est $206k · 15% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Granbury! Tucked inside the peaceful Sky Harbour neighborhood, this 1,080 sq ft home has all the cozy vibes you’ve been looking for. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the soft, plush carpeting and pretty granite countertops that make the space feel warm and inviting. The primary suite is a sweet retreat with tons of closet space (because we all need that!) and a beautifully finished private bath. Step out back and you’ll find a fully fenced yard ready for pets, gatherings, or quiet evenings under the Texas sky. There’s even a spacious shed with electricity — perfect for a workshop, extra storage, or finally starting that hobby you’ve been thinking about. Community boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, clubhouse. Easy access to either Granbury or Weatherford via Hwy 51. Add in the circle driveway and carport for easy parking, and you’ve got a home that’s as practical as it is charming. It’s peaceful living with town just a short drive away — and at a price that makes it even sweeter. Come see it before someone else falls in love first!

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Fishing pier
• Clubhouse

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SPACIOUS SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.1% in Stockton Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,249 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,347
• List price: $174,999
• Delta: -15.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,433
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $45,829
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,100/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $407	+0% $358	+5% $308	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $285	+0% $358	+5% $431	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $402	base $358	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,999 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,999 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,999 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,999 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,999 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,999 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,999 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,999 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,999 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,999 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $174,999 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Granbury! Tucked inside the peaceful Sky Harbour neighborhood, this 1,080 sq ft home has all the cozy vibes you’ve been looking for. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the soft, plush carpeting and pretty granite countertops that make the space feel warm and inviting. The primary suite is a sweet retreat with tons of closet space (because we all need that!) and a beautifully finished private bath. Step out back and you’ll find a fully fenced yard ready for pets, gatherings, or quiet evenings under the Texas sky. There’s even a spacious shed with electricity — perfect for a workshop, extra storage, or finally starting that hobby you’ve been thinking about. Community boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, clubhouse. Easy access to either Granbury or Weatherford via Hwy 51. Add in the circle driveway and carport for easy parking, and you’ve got a home that’s as practical as it is charming. It’s peaceful living with town just a short drive away — and at a price that makes it even sweeter. Come see it before someone else falls in love first!

16. 2026-02-26
    listed $175,000 Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Granbury! Tucked inside the peaceful Sky Harbour neighborhood, this 1,080 sq ft home has all the cozy vibes you’ve been looking for. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the soft, plush carpeting and pretty granite countertops that make the space feel warm and inviting. The primary suite is a sweet retreat with tons of closet space (because we all need that!) and a beautifully finished private bath. Step out back and you’ll find a fully fenced yard ready for pets, gatherings, or quiet evenings under the Texas sky. There’s even a spacious shed with electricity — perfect for a workshop, extra storage, or finally starting that hobby you’ve been thinking about. Community boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, clubhouse. Easy access to either Granbury or Weatherford via Hwy 51. Add in the circle driveway and carport for easy parking, and you’ve got a home that’s as practical as it is charming. It’s peaceful living with town just a short drive away — and at a price that makes it even sweeter. Come see it before someone else falls in love first!

17. 2025-09-24
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2025-01-22
    historical $1,700
19. 2024-10-21
    historical
20. 2024-10-18
    listed $1,700
21. 2024-09-04
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus
23. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-07-26
    status Pending
25. 2022-07-09
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2022-07-07
    listed $160,000 Active
27. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus
28. 2001-09-25
    soldstatus
29. 1997-08-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,102/yr (+$175/mo · 191.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,100
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$365
• After-tax cash flow: $3,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stockton Bend

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $174,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-22 Rental Removed $1,700 NTREIS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-18 Listed for Rent $1,700 NTREIS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-07-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-07-07 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,100 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.