1306 S 12th St S · Virginia, MN 55792

$99,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1946 7,405 sqft lot Est $121k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nicely situated 4 bedroom home in Williams Addition of Virginia. Economical living with a spacious yard and garage. New roof in 2024. This has been one family's home for the last 66 years! Check it out today!!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1946

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Full block basement; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 7.5% in Virginia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#664 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.50%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,268
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1306 S 12th St S	0.00mi	4/1.0	994 (0%)	0mo	$99,900	$101	100
1405 12th St S	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (+1%)	3mo	$30,000	$30	86
1908 Wolf Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,017 (+2%)	3mo	$188,750	$186	68
1225 S 13th St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,087 (+9%)	20mo	$99,900	$92	60
1510 12th Street South St	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,046 (+5%)	18mo	$150,000	$143	60
1510 9th St S	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+13%)	7mo	$85,000	$76	56
502 12th St St S	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	984 (-1%)	9mo	$132,500	$135	50
903 13th St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	892 (-10%)	12mo	$160,821	$180	47
504 10th St St S	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (+3%)	21mo	$125,000	$122	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $18,669
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $61,064
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55792

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $576	+0% $548	+5% $519	+10% $491
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $490	+0% $548	+5% $606	+10% $663
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $573	base $548	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 2nd St N Unit 2 Virginia, MN	3.0	1.0	970	$1,535	$1.58	14d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $524 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 56.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $5,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Virginia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #15991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 9,663
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 9,663
• Household income: $53,750
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.05%
• Current HPI: 199.7165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — RAOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $99,900 RAOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $524 · -29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.