578 Arlington Rd · Danville, VA 24541

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1970 9,148 sqft lot $103/sqft · 6% above area Est $179k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful brick Cape Cod with paved drive and large rooms. Home has 4 bedrooms plus a basement with a living room / bedroom combo. Hardwood floors and covered front porch. Tenant occupied. Tenant will be present for showings. All information to be verified by purchaser.

Key facts

• Paved drive
• Large rooms
• Basement

Tags

• BRICK CAPE COD
• PAVED DRIVE
• LARGE ROOMS
• BASEMENT
• LIVING ROOM BEDROOM COMBO
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($60/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,730 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,576
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 6.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1535 Kemper Road Ext	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (-1%)	1mo	$170,000	$94	79
181 Bell Dr	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,716 (-7%)	4mo	$143,000	$83	73
5 Selma Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,824 (-1%)	5mo	$95,000	$52	69
204 Cumberland Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-10%)	18mo	$140,000	$85	64
373 Cumberland Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,954 (+6%)	16mo	$238,000	$122	62
325 Cumberland Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (+13%)	10mo	$195,000	$94	58
1102 Greenwood Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+12%)	12mo	$200,000	$98	56
1509 Kemper Rd	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,600 (-13%)	11mo	$202,000	$126	55
1121 Lockett Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,794 (-2%)	19mo	$170,900	$95	47
130 Fairfield Ave	0.28mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,072 (+13%)	18mo	$45,000	$22	44
521 Bell Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,060 (+12%)	22mo	$250,000	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,547
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,498
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $59	+0% $5	+5% $-49	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-53	+0% $5	+5% $63	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $53	base $5	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $190,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-02-17
    listed $190,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Wonderful brick Cape Cod with paved drive and large rooms. Home has 4 bedrooms plus a basement with a living room / bedroom combo. Hardwood floors and covered front porch. Tenant occupied. Tenant will be present for showings. All information to be verified by purchaser.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$786
• After-tax cash flow: $845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $190,000 LMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.