8741 Sierra Trl · Oak Point, TX 76227

$290,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2014 6,325 sqft lot $205/sqft · 8% below area Est $316k · 8% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof replaced in April 2026 – provides peace of mind for years to come. Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across the street from the community pool and basketball court, offering convenience and a great community atmosphere. Freshly painted throughout with numerous upgrades completed in 2024, this move-in-ready home is perfect for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The living room features newly installed flooring, and the spacious primary bedroom has also been upgraded with new flooring for a fresh, modern feel. The kitchen and entryway have been enhanced with stylish new light fixtures, while the primary bathroom includes an upgraded shower. Additional improvements include new ceiling fans in all bedrooms and partial window panel replacements. The HVAC system has been regularly maintained, providing added peace of mind. The garage stands out with professionally finished epoxy flooring, creating a clean and durable space. The home has also been on a routine pest control service schedule for added care and maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting gatherings with friends and family. This well-cared-for home combines thoughtful upgrades, comfort, and a fantastic location within the neighborhood.Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer’s agent to independently verify all information, including schools and property measurements.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Upgraded shower
• Basketball court

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• NEWLY INSTALLED FLOORING
• UPGRADED SHOWER
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,686 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,918
• List price: $290,900
• Delta: -7.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 Cheyenne Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,609 (+13%)	8mo	$318,000	$198	57
616 Cheyenne Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (+11%)	5mo	$299,000	$189	55
1421 Red River Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,609 (+13%)	20mo	$325,000	$202	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,938
• Equity at exit: $43,374

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-90,595
• Equity at exit: $25,152

Cash invested: $81,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,217/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $273,929

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-14	+0% $-96	+5% $-178	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-202	+0% $-96	+5% $10	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-22	base $-96	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,725
• Closing costs: $8,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3140 Brazoria Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,895	$1.60	5d	1	0.53mi
9005 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1557	$2,100	$1.35	13d	1	0.54mi
3101 Bell Flower Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1736	$3,000	$1.73	1d	1	0.66mi
9225 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1854	$2,600	$1.40	14d	1	0.68mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$3,320	$1.90	0d	33	1.08mi
4229 Brindley Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,895	$1.14	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,900 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $294,900 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Roof replaced in April 2026 – provides peace of mind for years to come. Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across the street from the community pool and basketball court, offering convenience and a great community atmosphere. Freshly painted throughout with numerous upgrades completed in 2024, this move-in-ready home is perfect for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The living room features newly installed flooring, and the spacious primary bedroom has also been upgraded with new flooring for a fresh, modern feel. The kitchen and entryway have been enhanced with stylish new light fixtures, while the primary bathroom includes an upgraded shower. Additional improvements include new ceiling fans in all bedrooms and partial window panel replacements. The HVAC system has been regularly maintained, providing added peace of mind. The garage stands out with professionally finished epoxy flooring, creating a clean and durable space. The home has also been on a routine pest control service schedule for added care and maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting gatherings with friends and family. This well-cared-for home combines thoughtful upgrades, comfort, and a fantastic location within the neighborhood.Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer’s agent to independently verify all information, including schools and property measurements.

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $298,900 Active 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Roof replaced in April 2026 – provides peace of mind for years to come. Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across the street from the community pool and basketball court, offering convenience and a great community atmosphere. Freshly painted throughout with numerous upgrades completed in 2024, this move-in-ready home is perfect for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The living room features newly installed flooring, and the spacious primary bedroom has also been upgraded with new flooring for a fresh, modern feel. The kitchen and entryway have been enhanced with stylish new light fixtures, while the primary bathroom includes an upgraded shower. Additional improvements include new ceiling fans in all bedrooms and partial window panel replacements. The HVAC system has been regularly maintained, providing added peace of mind. The garage stands out with professionally finished epoxy flooring, creating a clean and durable space. The home has also been on a routine pest control service schedule for added care and maintenance. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting gatherings with friends and family. This well-cared-for home combines thoughtful upgrades, comfort, and a fantastic location within the neighborhood.Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyer’s agent to independently verify all information, including schools and property measurements.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,295
• − Property taxes: −$6,217
• − Insurance: −$1,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,463
• Taxable loss: −$5,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $294,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $298,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,217 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.