191 Sylvan Lake Rd #1 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 327 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

Key facts

• New floors
• New kitchen
• Perennial gardens

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• PRIVATE SETTING
• PERENNIAL GARDENS
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATH UPDATES
• NEW FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Self-managed association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Public sewer; Private trash collection
• Home design: Stock cooperative (co-op) property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Attic partially finished with pull-down stairs; No basement
• Exterior features: Views; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; His and hers closets; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Pets allowed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beekman School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 381 students, 21% FRL); Union Vale Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 907 students, 21% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $79k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.74%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $53,842
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $132,783
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,100	-5% $1,073	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,019	+10% $991
Rent	-10% $887	-5% $966	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,205
Rate	-1.0pp $1,086	-0.5pp $1,066	base $1,046	+0.5pp $1,025	+1.0pp $1,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	45d	3	0.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $79,000 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 324 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 323 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 322 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    status Active
17. 2026-05-17
    historical
18. 2026-05-16
    status Active
19. 2026-04-01
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-03
    status Active
21. 2025-11-02
    historical
22. 2025-07-06
    price $79,000
23. 2025-06-13
    listed $82,500 Active
24. 2024-09-03
    soldstatus $35,700 Closed 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

25. 2024-08-06
    status Pending 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

26. 2024-07-08
    price $39,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

27. 2024-06-06
    price $43,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

28. 2024-05-04
    price $48,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

29. 2024-04-23
    listed $53,000 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FURNISHED AS SEEN (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS, GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.

30. 2022-09-25
    soldstatus $27,500 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS,GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,Landscaped,Cooling:Attic Fan,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,AboveGrade:800,ASNFENCLDS:Accounting/Legal,Taxes,Insurance,Management,Pool Service

31. 2022-06-01
    listed $35,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA, FENCED YARD, PRIVATE SETTING, PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BOATING SITE, TENNIS,GOLF ALL NEARBY. ONLY 1.15 HOURS FROM NYC AS PER GOOGLE MAPS. GOOD OPTION FOR WEEKEND/VACATION RETREAT OR FOR SNOWBIRDS. MAKE AN OFFER - AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY.,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,Landscaped,Cooling:Attic Fan,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,AboveGrade:800,ASNFENCLDS:Accounting/Legal,Taxes,Insurance,Management,Pool Service

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $12,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,882
• After-tax cash flow: $9,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+125.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $79,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $82,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Sold (MLS) $35,700 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Price Changed $39,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $43,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $48,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Listed $53,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-25 Sold (MLS) $27,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Listed $35,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid