28 Olmstedville Rd · Pottersville, NY 12817

$185,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1909 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Older home in a completely private location - in the center of a Hamlet. Trees and bushes make the home invisible from the road. The back border is Town land with Public beach area on Trout Brook Good for canoeing. Covered porch is on two sides of the house. The interior has beautiful real wood floors. Main level is kitchen, dining room, living room, full bath and laundry area. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, full bath and deck from main bedroom. Garage is currently used as workshop. Driving distance to Schroon Lake Boat Launch and swimming area is 5 minutes. Drive to Gore Mountain ski area is no more than 30 minutes. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Public beach area
• Solid wood floors

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• PUBLIC BEACH AREA
• COVERED PORCH
• SOLID WOOD FLOORS
• DECK FROM MAIN BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage; Total of three parking spaces; Off-street parking, driveway; Workshop space in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical service; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; Clapboard siding; Stone foundation
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Level, private lot with road frontage; Shed; Detached garage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Satellite internet; Wood window frames
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#985 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• North Warren Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #352 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,771 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $93,161
• Equity at exit: $165,104

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $278,767
• Equity at exit: $354,408

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12817

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $168,003

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-44	+0% $-96	+5% $-149	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-153	+0% $-96	+5% $-39	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-49	base $-96	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 644-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 627-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $185,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Warren Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616960
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,309
• Composite: 44.32/100
• National rank: #2829
• State rank: #352 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pottersville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #19227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pottersville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,023

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.88%
• Current HPI: 360.499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $185,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,312 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.