119 Casey St · Watertown, NY 13601

$128,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $155k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property back on the market after lease expired. Cozy two bedroom home. Newer windows, furnace, hot water heater. Nice private backyard. This is a dead end street - no through traffic. Laundry on first floor. Ceiling fans in kitchen and living room. Storage shed has electricity, a storage loft and work bench. PROPERTY IS VACANT - MOVE IN READY!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New bathroom faucet
• Large work shed

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW BATHROOM FAUCET
• LARGE WORK SHED
• CERAMIC TILE IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $128k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,944 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,100
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Pine St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+7%)	3mo	$196,760	$195	53
225 Breen Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	908 (-3%)	11mo	$150,000	$165	47
467 S Massey St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+8%)	0mo	$207,000	$203	43
151 Palmer St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	19mo	$65,000	$61	42
146 Smith St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (+14%)	21mo	$35,000	$33	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,295
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $36,067
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $179	+0% $143	+5% $106	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $95	+0% $143	+5% $190	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $175	base $143	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,304	$0.91	45d	9	0.39mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.83mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.13mi
152 Court St Unit 5 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	45d	1	1.21mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	1.24mi
334 Clay St Unit 4 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,070	$1.53	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 409-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $128,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,611 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 52.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $1,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $128,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-19 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CNYIS
• 2021-08-25 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-08-02 Price Changed $89,000 CNYIS
• 2021-02-17 Listed $93,900 CNYIS
• 2017-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-26 Sold (MLS) $59,000 CNYIS
• 2017-08-01 Listed $58,900 CNYIS
• 2017-02-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-10-12 Listed $64,900 CNYIS
• 2015-03-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-09-24 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2011-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-14 Sold (MLS) $52,000 CNYIS
• 2010-06-30 Listed $54,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.