4534 Seaberg Rd · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$159,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1961 6,450 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great deal on this charming bungalow featuring original oak wood floors, 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a carport, and a couple of sheds. The home offers a Florida room, a kitchen/dining combo, and a separate living room, plus a lovely shaded backyard. Located just outside the Zephyrhills city limits, it’s tucked away off the beaten path yet only about a mile from grocery stores, Zephyr Park, and local restaurants.

Key facts

• Shaded backyard
• Zephyr park
• Florida room

Tags

• ORIGINAL OAK WOOD FLOORS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• SHADED BACKYARD
• ZEPHYR PARK
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1MH; Lot approximately 0.15 acre (about 599 sq meters); Public maintained paved road access
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built area about 892 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Florida room; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $160k implies a 566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,069 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,589
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,090
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $978/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $213	+0% $167	+5% $122	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $110	+0% $167	+5% $225	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $208	base $167	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	23d	1	0.63mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	26d	1	1.24mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $159,900 Active
16. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $978 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 35.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$978
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$159
• After-tax cash flow: $2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+566.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $978 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.