129 Birch Ln · Millerton, NY 12546

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1997 4.00 ac lot $251/sqft · 133% above area ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated high on a hillside in the Ancram countryside is where you will find this freshly updated 1997 manufactured home. Recent updates and improvements include new stainless-steel appliances. new flooring throughout, fresh paint, new lighting and a new front entrance porch. Inside there are two bedrooms and a third office or hobby room, two full bathrooms and an open kitchen-living room. The parcel is a generous 4-acres in size and features a pond in the front yard and a large deck in the rear for entertaining. New to the market and priced to move.

Key facts

• New lighting
• Large deck
• Front entrance porch

Tags

• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW LIGHTING
• FRONT ENTRANCE PORCH
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,513
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: 133.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $143,750
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $412,512
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12546

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,053/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $282	+0% $214	+5% $146	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $127	+0% $214	+5% $301	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $275	base $214	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $239,000 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Situated high on a hillside in the Ancram countryside is where you will find this freshly updated 1997 manufactured home. Recent updates and improvements include new stainless-steel appliances. new flooring throughout, fresh paint, new lighting and a new front entrance porch. Inside there are two bedrooms and a third office or hobby room, two full bathrooms and an open kitchen-living room. The parcel is a generous 4-acres in size and features a pond in the front yard and a large deck in the rear for entertaining. New to the market and priced to move.

17. 2025-11-05
    listed $265,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Situated high on a hillside in the Ancram countryside is where you will find this freshly updated 1997 manufactured home. Recent updates and improvements include new stainless-steel appliances. new flooring throughout, fresh paint, new lighting and a new front entrance porch. Inside there are two bedrooms and a third office or hobby room, two full bathrooms and an open kitchen-living room. The parcel is a generous 4-acres in size and features a pond in the front yard and a large deck in the rear for entertaining. New to the market and priced to move.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,046 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,053
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #8150
• State rank: #592 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millerton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #10777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,710

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 88.31%
• Current HPI: 405.1321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $239,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $265,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,053 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.