Sunterra Cypress 2821 Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$352,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,935 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sunterra brings a kind of excitement you won't find anywhere else in Katy, offering a lifestyle that feels fresh, inspired, and truly one-of-a-kind. Resort-style amenities, stunning water attractions, and thoughtful gathering spaces create a community experience that stands apart, giving residents more ways to relax, play, and enjoy time together. Its convenient location keeps shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares close at hand. Sunterra is where fun, comfort, and something truly special come together.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 127 days

🏗️ New construction. The $352,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $409,266.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,976 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,266
• List price: $352,990
• Delta: -13.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5007 Canyon Grove Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,793 (-5%)	3mo	$412,990	$148	87
5606 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,040 (+4%)	1mo	$529,835	$174	56
27022 Sunset Palace Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,754 (-6%)	3mo	$422,651	$153	55
4652 Peony Green Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,824 (-4%)	3mo	$369,990	$131	55
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-5%)	2mo	$499,236	$179	52
2237 Sonder Shore Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,554 (-13%)	2mo	$379,990	$149	51
4713 Bakers Landing Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,141 (+7%)	1mo	$470,848	$150	50
5615 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,134 (+7%)	2mo	$564,501	$180	49
2247 Inglenook Grove Dr	0.50mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,152 (+7%)	3mo	$409,990	$130	49
3037 Prairie Sky Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	3,272 (+12%)	1mo	$559,000	$171	47
27002 Sunset Palace Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,300 (+12%)	2mo	$599,931	$182	41
5623 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,337 (+14%)	3mo	$598,145	$179	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-103,321
• Equity at exit: $61,023

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-160,295
• Equity at exit: $35,386

Cash invested: $114,594 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 151 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $395,000 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,139/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,580

Max offer price $345,202

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-301	+0% $-443	+5% $-584	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-681	-5% $-562	+0% $-443	+5% $-323	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-237	-0.5pp $-339	base $-443	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,316
• Closing costs: $12,278
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	28d	1	0.11mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	2d	1	0.28mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	13d	1	0.39mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	93d	1	0.41mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	28d	1	0.42mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	13d	24	0.45mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	73d	1	0.60mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,595	$1.20	19d	1	0.62mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.66mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	39d	1	0.66mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	5d	1	0.66mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	0.66mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	1d	1	0.78mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	93d	1	0.84mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	2d	1	0.90mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	0.94mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.09mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	66d	1	1.09mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	93d	1	1.14mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	41d	1	1.14mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	62d	1	1.17mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	47d	1	1.23mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.24mi
584 Santa Rosa Hills Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,200	$1.18	3d	1	1.29mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,300	$1.01	42d	1	1.34mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	0d	1	1.40mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	62d	1	1.40mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	39d	1	1.40mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	53d	1	1.41mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	13d	1	1.45mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	40d	1	1.45mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	32d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5003 Canyon Grove Dr, Katy TX 77493Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $392,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family residence (plan-based listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2935

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Sunterra Cypress 2821

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $352,990 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $352,990 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $352,990 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $352,990 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $352,990 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $352,990 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $352,990 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $352,990 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $352,990 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $352,990 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $352,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $352,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $352,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $352,990 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $352,990 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $352,990 Active 105 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $352,990 Active 104 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $352,990 Active 103 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $352,990 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $352,990 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $352,990 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $352,990 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $352,990 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $352,990 Active 96 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $352,990 Active 95 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $352,990 Active 94 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $352,990 Active 93 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $352,990 Active 92 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $352,990 Active 91 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $352,990 Active 90 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $352,990 Active 89 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $352,990 Active 88 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $352,990 Active 87 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $352,990 Active 86 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $352,990 Active 85 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $352,990 Active 83 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $352,990 Active 81 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $352,990 Active 80 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 77 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $352,990 Active 76 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $352,990 Active 75 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $352,990 Active 74 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $392,990 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $392,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $392,990 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $392,990 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 62 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,139
• − Insurance: −$2,046
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,899
• − Management: −$2,899
• − Depreciation: −$11,906
• Taxable loss: −$12,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5003 Canyon Grove Dr, Katy TX 77493Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $392,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family residence (plan-based listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2935

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Sunterra Cypress 2821