Sunterra Cypress 2821 Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$352,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,935 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sunterra brings a kind of excitement you won't find anywhere else in Katy, offering a lifestyle that feels fresh, inspired, and truly one-of-a-kind. Resort-style amenities, stunning water attractions, and thoughtful gathering spaces create a community experience that stands apart, giving residents more ways to relax, play, and enjoy time together. Its convenient location keeps shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares close at hand. Sunterra is where fun, comfort, and something truly special come together.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 77 days

🏗️ New construction. The $352,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $409,167.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,935 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,167
• List price: $352,990
• Delta: -13.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5007 Canyon Grove Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,793 (-5%)	1mo	$412,990	$148	88
2080 Terra Rose Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	3,112 (+6%)	2mo	$375,000	$121	69
5021 Steady Breeze Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-5%)	2mo	$494,893	$178	58
27022 Sunset Palace Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,754 (-6%)	1mo	$422,651	$153	56
4652 Peony Green Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,824 (-4%)	2mo	$369,990	$131	56
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-5%)	0mo	$499,236	$179	53
2237 Sonder Shore Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,554 (-13%)	1mo	$379,990	$149	53
5615 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,134 (+7%)	1mo	$564,501	$180	51
2247 Inglenook Grove Dr	0.50mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,152 (+7%)	2mo	$409,990	$130	50
27403 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,671 (-9%)	2mo	$432,915	$162	48
27002 Sunset Palace Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,300 (+12%)	0mo	$599,931	$182	42
5623 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,337 (+14%)	1mo	$598,145	$179	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-95,223
• Equity at exit: $61,008

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-144,110
• Equity at exit: $35,377

Cash invested: $114,567 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$511 /mo · $6,138/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,579

Max offer price $364,588

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,292
• Closing costs: $12,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	43d	1	0.41mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.45mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	24d	1	0.60mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	20d	1	0.66mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.78mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	43d	1	0.84mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	16d	1	1.09mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	43d	1	1.14mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.14mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	12d	1	1.17mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.23mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.24mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	12d	1	1.40mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	3d	1	1.41mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,990 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $352,990 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $392,990 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $392,990 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $392,990 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $392,990 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $392,990 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-04-02
    listed $392,990 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Sunterra brings a kind of excitement you won't find anywhere else in Katy, offering a lifestyle that feels fresh, inspired, and truly one-of-a-kind. Resort-style amenities, stunning water attractions, and thoughtful gathering spaces create a community experience that stands apart, giving residents more ways to relax, play, and enjoy time together. Its convenient location keeps shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares close at hand. Sunterra is where fun, comfort, and something truly special come together.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,920
• − Property taxes: −$6,138
• − Insurance: −$2,046
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,062
• − Management: −$3,062
• − Depreciation: −$11,903
• Taxable loss: −$10,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $392,990 Zillow