14307 215th Ave E · Prairie Ridge, WA 98391

$294,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 372 Days on market

Built 1979 7,040 sqft lot $256/sqft · 23% below area Est $385k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Prairie Ridge Opportunity Under $300K! This double-wide manufactured home offers incredible value with major system upgrades already completed, including a new furnace, heat pump, tankless hot water heater, all new hot and cold water lines, and a new electrical panel. The costly mechanical improvements have been taken care of, leaving the cosmetic updates as an opportunity to build equity and make it your own. The home features a spacious primary bedroom with a private 3/4 bath, a fully fenced backyard, and a large deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy mature fruit trees in both the front and back yards. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or yo

Key facts

• Large deck
• New furnace
• Mature fruit trees

Tags

• NEW FURNACE
• HEAT PUMP
• TANKLESS HOT-WATER TANK
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• LARGE DECK
• MATURE FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Prairie Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#401 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orting School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 291 in WA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 740 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 372 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $257,973 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 372 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,000
• List price: $294,950
• Delta: -23.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21717 146th St E	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,035 (-10%)	5mo	$405,000	$391	69
22006 134th St E	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	7mo	$175,000	$152	60
21901 147th St E	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	12mo	$435,000	$403	59
14409 Greenbelt Dr E	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,055 (-8%)	13mo	$285,000	$270	59
13501 Ridgewood Dr E	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+8%)	5mo	$354,950	$287	58
21611 148th St E	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	19mo	$400,000	$370	56
13806 Prairie Ridge Dr E	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	15mo	$439,950	$339	46
22013 134th St E	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,234 (+7%)	16mo	$415,950	$337	41
13125 Ridge Cir E	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$205,000	$194	40
13349 Prairie Ridge Dr E	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+13%)	13mo	$485,000	$373	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-35,982
• Equity at exit: $43,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-12,801
• Equity at exit: $25,502

Cash invested: $82,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98391

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 740
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,413/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $294,950

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $251	+0% $167	+5% $84	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $65	+0% $167	+5% $269	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $242	base $167	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,738
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15320 208th Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1470	$3,100	$2.11	4d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,950 Active 372 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,950 Active 369 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,950 Active 368 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,950 Active 367 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,950 Active 366 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,950 Active 364 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,950 Active 363 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,950 Active 360 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,950 Active 359 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,950 Active 358 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,950 Active 355 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,950 Active 354 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,950 Active 353 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,950 Active 352 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,950 Active 351 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    price $294,950
18. 2026-01-14
    price $289,950
19. 2025-06-14
    listed $299,950 Active
20. 2022-03-10
    soldstatus $275,000 Closed
21. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
22. 2022-01-26
    price $249,950
23. 2022-01-19
    listed $275,000 Active
24. 1979-08-01
    soldstatus $9,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$477/yr (+$40/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,522
• − Property taxes: −$2,413
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,477
• − Management: −$2,477
• − Depreciation: −$8,580
• Taxable loss: −$2,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $2,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orting School District
• NCES district ID: 5306450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $72,768
• Composite: 45.37/100
• National rank: #5719
• State rank: #142 of 291 in WA

Livability — Prairie Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #16033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie Ridge, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 59,240
• Household income: $135,037
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -565.91%
• Current HPI: 294.2062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2864.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $294,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $289,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Listed $299,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-10 Sold (MLS) $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-26 Price Changed $249,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-19 Listed $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,413 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.