400 Alamosa Dr · Highland Springs, VA 23075

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1979 2,652 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $185k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $50 HOA
• Built 1979
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $50 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story residence; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Built in actual year (year-built details available)
• Exterior features: Zoned RTH

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower; 1 half bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $190k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,931
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 2.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Airycrest Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-2%)	11mo	$199,000	$148	83
411 Alamosa Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-9%)	10mo	$229,000	$183	76
403 Acreview Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,248 (-9%)	7mo	$246,370	$197	72
817 Pleasant St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,218 (-11%)	0mo	$188,500	$155	70
743 Pleasant St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,334 (-2%)	14mo	$240,000	$180	68
610 Lenten Rose Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,292 (-6%)	2mo	$290,000	$224	64
420 Newbridge Ter	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,178 (-14%)	12mo	$208,500	$177	63
849 Pleasant St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,218 (-11%)	9mo	$225,000	$185	63
4307 Cottage Rose Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-6%)	8mo	$270,000	$211	56
4202 Rosedown Pl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,562 (+14%)	9mo	$299,000	$191	45
619 Lenten Rose Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,562 (+14%)	10mo	$302,000	$193	42
605 Lenten Rose Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,562 (+14%)	12mo	$303,000	$194	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,714
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,717
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23075

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,621/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $291	+0% $237	+5% $183	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $162	+0% $237	+5% $312	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $285	base $237	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	2d	12	0.21mi
6001 Yates Ln Richmond, VA	4.0	1.5	1556	$2,450	$1.57	2d	1	0.44mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	4d	1	0.77mi
210 Natchez Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	4d	1	0.98mi
339 E Jerald St Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,950	$1.68	44d	1	0.98mi
205 Bridge St Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,850	$1.49	11d	1	1.06mi
315 Natchez Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	24d	1	1.09mi
117 N Ivy Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,590	$1.62	4d	1	1.09mi
5 N Oak Ave Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	1524	$1,895	$1.24	18d	1	1.15mi
118 N Linden Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	1.16mi
500 S Laburnum Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	20d	1	1.37mi
239 N Mapleleaf Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	24d	1	1.45mi
4704 Greenleigh Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,200	$1.85	17d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    historical $190,000
16. 2010-11-22
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 2007-09-06
    soldstatus $97,000
18. 1995-01-01
    soldstatus $48,450
19. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $41,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,621 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,621 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,621
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,347
• Household income: $55,567
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.15%
• Current HPI: 458.732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $190,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $190,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,450 Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,621 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.