7130 Shawnee Cir · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 5,576 sqft lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner Financing Available!!! Discover the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor living with this recently built home nestled just a short walk from the lake. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with mature trees offering privacy and a serene setting, while still being only a quick drive to the public boat ramp—making lake days effortless and frequent. This property is ideal for those who love the water and need space to accommodate it all, featuring ample room for both boat and vehicle parking. Whether you’re hosting weekend getaways or simply enjoying quiet evenings under the trees, this home offers the flexibility and space to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll fin

Key facts

• Modern construction
• Public boat ramp
• Natural beauty

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING
• MATURE TREES
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• BOAT AND VEHICLE PARKING
• MODERN CONSTRUCTION
• NATURAL BEAUTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding or negotiable; Listed as builder/seller new construction condition
• Financial info: Listing available for cash, owner financing, or contact agent
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered/carport spaces; Parking suitable for a boat; Concrete driveway with direct access and inside entrance; Open, oversized parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residence built in 2025; Not attached to another property; No known restrictions
• Construction: Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; One lake on the property; All-weather road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 13) on main level; Bedroom (11 x 11) on main level; Bedroom (11 x 12) on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan with decorative lighting; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Built-in features; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); One living area and one dining area; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No smart home automation reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,019 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-39,069
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-54,923
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $203,501

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.79mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $205,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $1,500 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,600 NTREIS
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $59 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.