15205 SE Michelle Dr · Happy Valley, OR 97015

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition $118/sqft · 72% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to comfort, space, and style in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath, 1,782 sq ft manufactured home in the highly desirable all-ages community of Ridgewood and Sunshine.Situated on a premium corner lot, this home has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom. Enjoy brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and beautifully updated bathrooms that give the entire home a modern, move-in-ready feel. With plenty of parking and an oversized carport offering generous covered space, convenience is built right in.Step onto the expansive front porch,the perfect place for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or simply unwinding after a long day, the birds are bonus added to perfect days. Inside, you’re welcomed by a spacious living room designed for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The four generously sized guest bedrooms are a rare find, offering flexibility for family, visitors, creative space, or remote work.The massive primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, complete with a private bath and luxurious soaking tub your personal sanctuary to relax and recharge. A large laundry room with a second exterior entrance adds everyday practicality and functionality.Location matters and this one delivers. Just steps from Clackamas High School, and minutes from shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, you’ll enjoy both peaceful community living and unbeatable convenience.Space rent is $1,140/month and includes cable, water, and sewer, an incredible value for the space, updates, and location.Homes with this much room, this level of renovation, and this prime setting rarely come available. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it your home. Open House every Saturday 11am-1pm

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Brand-new flooring
• Private bath

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• EXPANSIVE FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE BATH
• LUXURIOUS SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $919 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.5% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#76 in OR, #3,386 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.75%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,395
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 71.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15205 SE Michelle Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$112	100
15196 SE Lala Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (+4%)	5mo	$182,990	$99	83
13900 SE Highway 212 #181	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$172,000	$97	64
13900 SE Highway 212 #68	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	8mo	$105,000	$59	62
13900 SE Highway 212 #193	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+4%)	12mo	$203,000	$110	53
13900 SE Highway 212 #187	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	20mo	$150,000	$89	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $22,968
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $89,188
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15341 SE Shale Dr Damascus, OR	4.0	2.5	2363	$3,050	$1.29	43d	1	0.37mi
15643 SE Kensington Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.5	2517	$3,095	$1.23	43d	1	0.60mi
14439 SE Oregon Trail Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,615	$1.58	1d	1	0.81mi
15004 SE Shaunte Ln Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	2340	$4,400	$1.88	43d	1	1.03mi
13898 SE Rogers Ln Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,599	$1.75	43d	1	1.03mi
14095 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,695	$1.85	43d	1	1.06mi
15586 SE Vivian Way Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1942	$2,795	$1.44	3d	1	1.08mi
12996 SE 155th Ave Happy Valley, OR	4.0	3.5	2021	$2,795	$1.38	23d	1	1.11mi
12930 SE 155th Ave Happy Valley, OR	4.0	2.5	1911	$2,775	$1.45	23d	1	1.15mi
16124 SE Baccarat Way Damascus, OR	4.0	3.0	2180	$3,150	$1.44	16d	1	1.15mi
12846 SE 157th Ave Happy Valley, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1147	$2,999	$2.61	1d	12	1.15mi
17134 SE Rock Creek Ct Happy Valley, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,790	$2.70	1d	139	1.24mi
13840 SE 131st Ave Clackamas, OR	4.0	2.5	2264	$3,250	$1.44	43d	1	1.25mi
12921 SE Creekside Ter Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	2057	$4,000	$1.94	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1754 chars)

   Welcome home to comfort, space, and style in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath, 1,782 sq ft manufactured home in the highly desirable all-ages community of Ridgewood and Sunshine.Situated on a premium corner lot, this home has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom. Enjoy brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and beautifully updated bathrooms that give the entire home a modern, move-in-ready feel. With plenty of parking and an oversized carport offering generous covered space, convenience is built right in.Step onto the expansive front porch,the perfect place for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or simply unwinding after a long day, the birds are bonus added to perfect days. Inside, you’re welcomed by a spacious living room designed for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The four generously sized guest bedrooms are a rare find, offering flexibility for family, visitors, creative space, or remote work.The massive primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, complete with a private bath and luxurious soaking tub your personal sanctuary to relax and recharge. A large laundry room with a second exterior entrance adds everyday practicality and functionality.Location matters and this one delivers. Just steps from Clackamas High School, and minutes from shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, you’ll enjoy both peaceful community living and unbeatable convenience.Space rent is $1,140/month and includes cable, water, and sewer, an incredible value for the space, updates, and location.Homes with this much room, this level of renovation, and this prime setting rarely come available. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it your home. Open House every Saturday 11am-1pm

2. 2026-04-03
   status Active 1754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1754 chars)

   Welcome home to comfort, space, and style in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath, 1,782 sq ft manufactured home in the highly desirable all-ages community of Ridgewood and Sunshine.Situated on a premium corner lot, this home has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom. Enjoy brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and beautifully updated bathrooms that give the entire home a modern, move-in-ready feel. With plenty of parking and an oversized carport offering generous covered space, convenience is built right in.Step onto the expansive front porch,the perfect place for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or simply unwinding after a long day, the birds are bonus added to perfect days. Inside, you’re welcomed by a spacious living room designed for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The four generously sized guest bedrooms are a rare find, offering flexibility for family, visitors, creative space, or remote work.The massive primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, complete with a private bath and luxurious soaking tub your personal sanctuary to relax and recharge. A large laundry room with a second exterior entrance adds everyday practicality and functionality.Location matters and this one delivers. Just steps from Clackamas High School, and minutes from shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, you’ll enjoy both peaceful community living and unbeatable convenience.Space rent is $1,140/month and includes cable, water, and sewer, an incredible value for the space, updates, and location.Homes with this much room, this level of renovation, and this prime setting rarely come available. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it your home. Open House every Saturday 11am-1pm

3. 2026-03-17
   status Pending 1754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1754 chars)

   Welcome home to comfort, space, and style in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath, 1,782 sq ft manufactured home in the highly desirable all-ages community of Ridgewood and Sunshine.Situated on a premium corner lot, this home has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom. Enjoy brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and beautifully updated bathrooms that give the entire home a modern, move-in-ready feel. With plenty of parking and an oversized carport offering generous covered space, convenience is built right in.Step onto the expansive front porch,the perfect place for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or simply unwinding after a long day, the birds are bonus added to perfect days. Inside, you’re welcomed by a spacious living room designed for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The four generously sized guest bedrooms are a rare find, offering flexibility for family, visitors, creative space, or remote work.The massive primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, complete with a private bath and luxurious soaking tub your personal sanctuary to relax and recharge. A large laundry room with a second exterior entrance adds everyday practicality and functionality.Location matters and this one delivers. Just steps from Clackamas High School, and minutes from shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, you’ll enjoy both peaceful community living and unbeatable convenience.Space rent is $1,140/month and includes cable, water, and sewer, an incredible value for the space, updates, and location.Homes with this much room, this level of renovation, and this prime setting rarely come available. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it your home. Open House every Saturday 11am-1pm

4. 2026-02-25
   listed $210,000 Active 1754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1754 chars)

   Welcome home to comfort, space, and style in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath, 1,782 sq ft manufactured home in the highly desirable all-ages community of Ridgewood and Sunshine.Situated on a premium corner lot, this home has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom. Enjoy brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and beautifully updated bathrooms that give the entire home a modern, move-in-ready feel. With plenty of parking and an oversized carport offering generous covered space, convenience is built right in.Step onto the expansive front porch,the perfect place for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or simply unwinding after a long day, the birds are bonus added to perfect days. Inside, you’re welcomed by a spacious living room designed for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The four generously sized guest bedrooms are a rare find, offering flexibility for family, visitors, creative space, or remote work.The massive primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, complete with a private bath and luxurious soaking tub your personal sanctuary to relax and recharge. A large laundry room with a second exterior entrance adds everyday practicality and functionality.Location matters and this one delivers. Just steps from Clackamas High School, and minutes from shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, you’ll enjoy both peaceful community living and unbeatable convenience.Space rent is $1,140/month and includes cable, water, and sewer, an incredible value for the space, updates, and location.Homes with this much room, this level of renovation, and this prime setting rarely come available. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it your home. Open House every Saturday 11am-1pm

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $8,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,960
• After-tax cash flow: $9,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated 4-bedroom + office, 2-bath manufactured home is in excellent condition with fresh paint, updated kitchens and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value
• Both HVAC — modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both HVAC — modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #3386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 34,567
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $210,000 RMLS