16542 Oat Mill Dr · Houston, TX 77095

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 7,069 sqft lot $108/sqft · 9% below area Est $331k · 9% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Can you say "WOW" this home boasts tons of upgrades! Recently updated flooring, cabinets and backsplash! Your surrounded by many restaurants, entertainment venues, and shopping. how amazing is it to have the YMCA within walking distance! Please bring your picky buyers!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• SOARING CEILINGS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by SCS Management Services; Annual association fee of $427; Community clubhouse and playground; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Year built: 2000; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Cul-de-sac lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Granite counters; Butler's pantry; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Stone
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Butler's pantry; Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (appliances not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-534 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aragon Middle (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,534 students, 47% FRL); Langham Creek H S (math 56% / reading 65%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,781 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,634 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,834
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: 5.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16510 Wellers Way	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,895 (+4%)	1mo	$319,900	$111	83
7523 Highland Farms Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,619 (-6%)	1mo	$385,000	$147	68
8306 Corey Woods Ct	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,142 (+13%)	0mo	$439,999	$140	68
16335 Drystone	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,608 (-6%)	2mo	$415,000	$159	66
7926 Rothesay Chase Rd	0.59mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,760 (-1%)	0mo	$335,000	$121	65
16114 Kintyre Point Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,622 (-6%)	0mo	$339,000	$129	64
8830 Distant Woods Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,848 (+2%)	1mo	$430,000	$151	60
17334 Emerald Isle Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,545 (-9%)	0mo	$400,000	$157	54
17322 Meadow Heights Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,560 (-8%)	0mo	$359,000	$140	54
16047 Pinyon Creek Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,492 (-11%)	1mo	$340,000	$136	51
17007 Calm Lagoon Ct	0.55mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,046 (+9%)	0mo	$515,000	$169	50
8731 Birch Springs Drive Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	3,047 (+9%)	2mo	$425,000	$139	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,756
• Equity at exit: $73,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,485
• Equity at exit: $77,540

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$667 /mo · $7,998/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $205,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-449	+0% $-534	+5% $-619	+10% $-704
Rent	-10% $-721	-5% $-628	+0% $-534	+5% $-441	+10% $-348
Rate	-1.0pp $-383	-0.5pp $-458	base $-534	+0.5pp $-612	+1.0pp $-691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7711 Thorncreek Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2085	$2,075	$1.00	8d	1	0.56mi
17111 Cradle Cove Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2445	$2,375	$0.97	8d	1	0.64mi
16303 Hickory Point Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2556	$2,400	$0.94	4d	1	0.95mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	8d	1	1.15mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	22d	1	1.15mi
7218 Broadelm Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	3158	$2,400	$0.76	45d	1	1.21mi
7207 Glenbank Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,100	$1.01	45d	1	1.36mi
17114 Kirkland Oaks Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2536	$2,600	$1.03	45d	1	1.40mi
17903 Timber Crossing Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2532	$2,500	$0.99	8d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $300,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $310,000 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $350,000 557-char remark
17. 2026-03-21
    listed $370,000 Active 557-char remark
18. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus
19. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus Sold 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Can you say "WOW" this home boasts tons of upgrades! Recently updated flooring, cabinets and backsplash! Your surrounded by many restaurants, entertainment venues, and shopping. how amazing is it to have the YMCA within walking distance! Please bring your picky buyers!

20. 2021-05-05
    status Pending 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Can you say "WOW" this home boasts tons of upgrades! Recently updated flooring, cabinets and backsplash! Your surrounded by many restaurants, entertainment venues, and shopping. how amazing is it to have the YMCA within walking distance! Please bring your picky buyers!

21. 2021-04-28
    listed $299,900 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Can you say "WOW" this home boasts tons of upgrades! Recently updated flooring, cabinets and backsplash! Your surrounded by many restaurants, entertainment venues, and shopping. how amazing is it to have the YMCA within walking distance! Please bring your picky buyers!

22. 2021-02-03
    soldstatus
23. 2017-10-10
    soldstatus
24. 2017-09-29
    soldstatus
25. 2017-09-26
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2017-09-04
    status Pending
27. 2017-08-05
    price $224,750
28. 2017-07-14
    price $224,850
29. 2017-06-03
    listed $234,900 Active
30. 2017-05-25
    soldstatus
31. 2013-01-11
    soldstatus
32. 2011-04-01
    historical
33. 2010-12-09
    listed $155,000
34. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus
35. 2010-11-19
    soldstatus
36. 2010-09-07
    historical
37. 2010-07-22
    listed $129,000
38. 2010-07-14
    historical
39. 2010-04-05
    listed $135,000
40. 2009-01-16
    historical
41. 2008-11-19
    listed $175,000
42. 2008-10-15
    historical
43. 2008-08-25
    listed $178,000
44. 2008-05-11
    historical
45. 2007-09-08
    listed $176,500
46. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus
47. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,998 · $667/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,998 · $667/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$7,998
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2021-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-09-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-05 Price Changed $224,750 HARMLS
• 2017-07-14 Price Changed $224,850 HARMLS
• 2017-06-03 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2017-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-09 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2010-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-09-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-05 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2009-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-11-19 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2008-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-25 Listed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2008-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-09-08 Listed $176,500 HARMLS
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,998 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.