647 Dunnings Creek Rd · Pleasantville, PA 15554

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2002 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable, low maintenance home with room to breath situated in a farm setting and less than 4 miles from Chestnut Ridge Schools. The layout is practical and comfortable, making it a good fit for a starter home, downsizing or investment use. Outside you will find both front and back porch, access to Dunnings Creek, a carport for covered parking and a storage shed for tools and equipment. The property provides outdoor space without the upkeep of larger acreage - ideal for a buyer who wants elbow room and water access without extra work. Settlement will be subject to approval of subdivision plan.

Key facts

• Front and back porch
• Outdoor space
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• ACCESS TO DUNNINGS CREEK
• CARPORT FOR COVERED PARKING
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $69k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $69k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#973 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Ridge Central El Sch (324 students, 58% FRL); Chestnut Ridge Ms (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #140 of 512 statewide, top 28%, 418 students, 54% FRL); Chestnut Ridge Shs (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #99 of 437 statewide, top 23%, 490 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $69,298 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $37,679
• Equity at exit: $81,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $116,683
• Equity at exit: $168,737

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15554

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$146
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $79,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-75	-5% $-109	+0% $-144	+5% $-178	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-171	+0% $-144	+5% $-116	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-118	base $-144	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$665
• − Management: −$665
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$3,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$846
• After-tax cash flow: $-877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. The kitchen and bathroom need significant updates, and the exterior and landscaping need attention. Improvements in these areas would make the home more attractive to buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen countertops — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major exterior siding — poor condition
• Major landscaping — overgrown grass and poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — improving the interior walls would make the home more appealing
• Both replace HVAC filters — improving the HVAC system would make the home more appealing
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping would make the home more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · overgrown grass and poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — improving the interior walls would make the home more appealing ↑
• Both replace HVAC filters — improving the HVAC system would make the home more appealing ↑
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping would make the home more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chestnut Ridge SD
• NCES district ID: 4205880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,762
• Composite: 42.63/100
• National rank: #3185
• State rank: #183 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pleasantville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #973
• US rank: #10636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,298

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.87%
• Current HPI: 229.8942
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Pending — AHARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $100,000 AHARMLS