109 Park St · Sherman, NY 14781

$68,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper located close to Sherman School. Home is priced well below assessment and would make a great project for someone.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New foundation
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW FOUNDATION
• NEW SILLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#844 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sherman Central School District (rural): math 70% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #204 of 755 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sherman Elementary School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 238 students, 55% FRL); Sherman High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #701 of 1,100 statewide, top 64%, 198 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($474 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $68k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,445 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.80%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,208
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Kipp St	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,760 (-3%)	3mo	$111,240	$63	83
148 E Main St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-14%)	13mo	$132,000	$84	48
169 W Main St	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,620 (-11%)	23mo	$142,000	$88	46
104 1st St	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,952 (+8%)	14mo	$76,000	$39	46
124 East St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-14%)	24mo	$174,500	$111	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $41,640
• Equity at exit: $33,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $102,231
• Equity at exit: $55,005

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14781

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,776/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $496	+0% $476	+5% $457	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $426	+0% $476	+5% $527	+10% $577
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $494	base $476	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $68,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $68,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $68,500 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,500 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $68,500 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,500 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,500 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $68,500 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,500 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,500 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $68,500 Active 696-char remark
18. 2017-11-06
    soldstatus $14,900
19. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $3,050 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Fixer upper located close to Sherman School. Home is priced well below assessment and would make a great project for someone.

20. 2016-06-27
    listed $15,999 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Fixer upper located close to Sherman School. Home is priced well below assessment and would make a great project for someone.

21. 1998-05-20
    soldstatus $44,000
22. 1996-11-22
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,776
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $4,965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626730
• Math proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,932
• Composite: 58.13/100
• National rank: #2135
• State rank: #204 of 755 in NY

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #844
• US rank: #16354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sherman, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,859

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 5% Polish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.81%
• Current HPI: 346.9299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+242.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $68,500 FSBO.com
• 2017-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $14,900 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $3,050 UNYREIS
• 2016-06-27 Listed $15,999 UNYREIS
• 1998-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,776 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.