8993 Cambria Cir #1907 · Lely Resort, FL 34113

$439,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,004 sqft · Condo public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2010 $1336/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a beautifully updated Santa Barbara townhome, fully furnished and styled with standout décor and finishes. Rarely available Santa Barbara model in Quad 5, the only Santa Barbara on the market in this quad. This expansive 2,008 sq. ft. residence, one of the community’s largest floor plans, features an open-concept layout connecting the family room, dining area and a sophisticated entertainer’s bar. Enjoy three generous bedrooms, 2.5 baths and covered lanais on both levels for true indoor-outdoor Florida living. The chef’s kitchen showcases newer stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a modern tile backsplash and pool views. This home includes the

Key facts

• Private pool
• Chef's kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• UPDATED SANTA BARBARA TOWNHOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• PRIVATE POOL
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR FLORIDA LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: One-time fees and totals apply (one-time fees listed by association)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Master association fee (annually); Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control exterior, sewer, water, street maintenance, street lights, trash removal, recreation facilities, reserve, security, legal/accounting, manager; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, business center, library, theater, restaurant, cabana, basketball, tennis, pickleball, bocce, volleyball, bike and jog path, and hobby room

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Patrolled community; Security system
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse end-unit; 2-story with split level; Rear exposure faces west; Residential property in Lely Resort development
• Construction: Built in 2010; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Impact resistant windows and doors
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Landscaped area view; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Bar; Fire sprinkler system; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Balcony; Screened lanai/porch; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $386k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,101/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $262k; list at $439k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-44,023
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $49,193
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34113

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$419 /mo · $5,033/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,336
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,281
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,908

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $277	+0% $152	+5% $28	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-89	+0% $152	+5% $393	+10% $634
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $264	base $152	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8989 Cambria Cir #1807 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2008	$7,000	$3.49	14d	1	0.05mi
8992 Cambria Cir Unit 1546062P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,097	$1.55	14d	1	0.06mi
8986 Cambria Cir Unit 22 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$6,000	$4.27	24d	1	0.06mi
8986 Cambria Cir #2204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	24d	1	0.06mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5113 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$7,000	$4.28	24d	1	0.11mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5216 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$4,500	$2.74	24d	1	0.11mi
9025 Alturas St #3102 Naples, FL	2.0	3.0	1531	$3,400	$2.22	24d	1	0.11mi
8135 Celeste Dr #4218 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$7,500	$5.08	24d	1	0.13mi
8175 Celeste Dr #1230 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$2,775	$1.88	24d	1	0.15mi
8175 Celeste Dr #1229 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,975	$1.81	24d	1	0.15mi
8175 Celeste Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,395	$1.64	24d	1	0.15mi
8949 Malibu St #304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.18mi
8085 Celeste Dr #812 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1480	$6,000	$4.05	14d	1	0.18mi
9054 Capistrano St N #4002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$6,000	$3.58	24d	1	0.20mi
8519 Chase Preserve Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1827	$9,000	$4.93	24d	1	0.25mi
8055 Tiger Cv Unit 6-606 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	24d	1	0.27mi
8965 Malibu Ln #802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,595	$3.72	24d	1	0.30mi
8073 Panther Trl #1404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$5,500	$3.79	24d	1	0.31mi
8693 Querce Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$5,000	$3.53	24d	1	0.32mi
9066 Albion Ln N Unit 51-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1989	$7,000	$3.52	24d	1	0.32mi
9066 Albion Ln N #5106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$6,500	$3.79	22d	1	0.32mi
8419 Benelli Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,300	$1.74	24d	1	0.33mi
9071 Albion Ln N #5706 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1441	$2,200	$1.53	24d	1	0.34mi
8416 Benelli Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2046	$6,000	$2.93	22d	1	0.36mi
9073 Rialto St #6002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	24d	1	0.37mi
8664 Genova Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$3,200	$2.06	24d	1	0.40mi
9081 Albion Ln S #6510 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2004	$6,280	$3.13	14d	1	0.40mi
9072 Rialto St #6302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$8,250	$4.66	22d	1	0.41mi
9076 Rialto St Unit 62 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$7,500	$4.62	24d	1	0.41mi
9102 Capistrano St S Unit 72-3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1520	$6,500	$4.28	24d	1	0.45mi
8177 Saratoga Dr #1002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$9,000	$4.79	24d	1	0.48mi
8177 Saratoga Dr #1001 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1880	$8,000	$4.26	24d	1	0.48mi
9088 Chula Vista St Unit 108-3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$5,700	$4.06	24d	1	0.50mi
9109 Yuba Ln Unit 80 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1729	$3,900	$2.26	24d	1	0.50mi
9092 Chula Vista St #11003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$6,850	$4.88	24d	1	0.51mi
7294 Salerno Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$4,250	$2.76	24d	1	0.52mi
7310 Salerno Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$5,000	$3.25	24d	1	0.52mi
7278 Salerno Ct Unit 1049689P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$6,683	$4.34	14d	1	0.52mi
9111 Capistrano St S #8303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$7,500	$5.24	24d	1	0.53mi
9102 Chula Vista St #11302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1531	$2,695	$1.76	22d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,336 · $16,032/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $439,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $439,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $439,000
17. 2026-03-02
    price $469,000
18. 2026-02-13
    listed $499,000 Active
19. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $262,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,033 · $419/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,033 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$5,033
• − Insurance: −$7,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,857
• − Management: −$5,857
• − HOA: −$16,032
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$4,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $2,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lely Resort

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #17981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lely Resort, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,056
• Household income: $81,674
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 279.4232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $439,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $469,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $262,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,033 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.