11904 Kingsley Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$422,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 6,910 sqft lot $147/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has an open concept floor plan, featuring a spacious kitchen overlooking large living and dining areas that flow out to an oversized covered lanai, a perfect place to relax or dine alfresco. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms that share a full bath, a laundry room off the garage, a fourth bedroom that is an optional den, and a powder bath. Bedroom 1, which includes Bathroom 1, is located at the back of the home for optimum privacy. This home comes with stainless-steel dishwasher, range, and microwave.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Resort-style pool
• Playground

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• FULLY EQUIPPED FITNESS CENTER
• LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,675; Total annual fees: $1,764 (monthly equivalent listed as $147)
• HOA & community: HOA managed by ICON Management Services Florida, LLC; Monthly HOA fee of $147; HOA requires approval; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool and sidewalks; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction with projected completion in 2026; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Lantana); New construction
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Pool (other/unspecified features)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Bonus room; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $423k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,292 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-102,875
• Equity at exit: $63,069

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-156,911
• Equity at exit: $36,572

Cash invested: $118,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,218
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,425/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,557

Max offer price $352,646

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-278	+0% $-398	+5% $-518	+10% $-638
Rent	-10% $-639	-5% $-519	+0% $-398	+5% $-278	+10% $-157
Rate	-1.0pp $-185	-0.5pp $-291	base $-398	+0.5pp $-508	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,748
• Closing costs: $12,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	0.39mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	13d	1	0.56mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	12d	1	0.56mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	5d	1	0.57mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	17d	1	0.68mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	25d	1	0.77mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	13d	1	0.93mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.05mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	17d	1	1.06mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	17d	1	1.10mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	1.11mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $147 · $1,764/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $422,990 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $422,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   listed $422,990 Active 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   This one-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has an open concept floor plan, featuring a spacious kitchen overlooking large living and dining areas that flow out to an oversized covered lanai, a perfect place to relax or dine alfresco. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms that share a full bath, a laundry room off the garage, a fourth bedroom that is an optional den, and a powder bath. Bedroom 1, which includes Bathroom 1, is located at the back of the home for optimum privacy. This home comes with stainless-steel dishwasher, range, and microwave.

4. 2026-05-15
   listed $422,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,511 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,086/yr (+$90/mo · 44.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,694
• − Property taxes: −$2,425
• − Insurance: −$2,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,931
• − Management: −$2,931
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$12,305
• Taxable loss: −$12,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $422,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listed $422,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,425 · +32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.