5292 Campbell Hwy · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1956 0.46 ac lot $107/sqft · 29% above area Est $186k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multiple offers submitted. Seller requests highest and best from all buyers. Great opportunity in Campbell County! This brick ranch on a 0.45-acre lot offers a large living room with a real wood-burning fireplace, eat-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms, and 1.5 bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor space with a fenced backyard and enclosed rear porch. The full unfinished basement provides excellent potential for expansion or storage. Conveniently located just 10 minutes to Lynchburg. Priced $38,000 below tax assessment, making it a strong value for homeowners or investors alike. Schools: Rustburg Elementary, middle and high. All information gathered from the county tax records. Buyer to verify all information and to perform all inspections.

Key facts

• Enclosed rear porch
• Outdoor space
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,762
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -35.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
290 Beasley Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+14%)	6mo	$275,000	$215	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,753
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,514
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $318	+0% $284	+5% $250	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $233	+0% $284	+5% $335	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $314	base $284	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   listed $119,900 Active 725-char remark

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Multiple offers submitted. Seller requests highest and best from all buyers. Great opportunity in Campbell County! This brick ranch on a 0.45-acre lot offers a large living room with a real wood-burning fireplace, eat-in kitchen, 2 bedrooms, and 1.5 bathrooms. Enjoy outdoor space with a fenced backyard and enclosed rear porch. The full unfinished basement provides excellent potential for expansion or storage. Conveniently located just 10 minutes to Lynchburg. Priced $38,000 below tax assessment, making it a strong value for homeowners or investors alike. Schools: Rustburg Elementary, middle and high. All information gathered from the county tax records. Buyer to verify all information and to perform all inspections.

2. 2009-06-22
   soldstatus $126,900
3. 2008-08-10
   historical
4. 2008-06-25
   listed $127,900
5. 2007-10-19
   soldstatus $119,500
6. 1994-12-13
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$22/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$366
• After-tax cash flow: $3,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+106.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $119,900 MLSRV
• 2009-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $126,900 Public Records
• 2008-08-10 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2008-06-25 Listed $127,900 MLSRV
• 2007-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $119,500 Public Records
• 1994-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.