9050 Shepherd Dr · Beaumont, TX 77707

$145,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,123 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1968 0.32 ac lot $69/sqft · 30% below area Est $156k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

Key facts

• Spacious bonus room
• Covered patio
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• GAS RANGE
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,769 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.63%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,786
• List price: $145,900
• Delta: -6.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
265 Enfield Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,182 (+3%)	12mo	$140,000	$64	75
8670 Greenridge Ln	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,816 (-14%)	17mo	$189,500	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,765
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $34,771
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77707

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,210/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $437	+0% $396	+5% $355	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $313	+0% $396	+5% $479	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $433	base $396	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9260 Josey St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	45d	1	0.23mi
405 Harbor Oaks Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.50mi
434 Harbor Oaks Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.53mi
1069 Green Meadow St Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.0	1556	$1,795	$1.15	45d	1	0.93mi
976 Sunmeadow Dr Unit 05/04/26 Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1656	$2,150	$1.30	45d	1	0.94mi
976 Sunmeadow Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1656	$1,995	$1.20	15d	1	0.94mi
9540 Glen Meadow Ln Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,295	$1.12	45d	1	1.05mi
7575 Chelsea Pl Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	45d	1	1.10mi
2065 88th Cir Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	24d	1	1.13mi
1212 N Major Dr Unit 4820 Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1692	$1,646	$0.97	24d	1	1.22mi
6780 Hialeah Dr Beaumont, TX	4.0	2.5	2480	$2,295	$0.93	24d	1	1.39mi
8256 Heartfield Ln Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.0	1638	$1,450	$0.89	45d	1	1.42mi
1532 Bryant Way Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,750	$1.07	15d	1	1.48mi
1170 Brandywine St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,890	$0.90	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Active 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

3. 2026-04-15
   price $145,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

4. 2026-03-12
   price $149,999 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

5. 2026-02-21
   listed $154,900 Active 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 1 car garage and carport offers plenty of space and comfort. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for cold seasons. The kitchen boasts warm toffee colored wood cabinets, a gas range, and a built-in microwave. Entertain in the spacious bonus room which could serve as a flex room, mancave, exercise room, or game room. Enjoy outdoor living in the large fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this home provides extra space and great curb appeal.

6. 2026-01-08
   price $154,900
7. 2025-11-06
   price $159,000
8. 2025-10-10
   price $169,000
9. 2025-09-24
   price $179,000
10. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus
11. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus
12. 2019-09-13
    listed $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$5,210
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable income: $2,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$666
• After-tax cash flow: $4,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809670
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,683
• Composite: 15.43/100
• National rank: #9316
• State rank: #789 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beaumont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #13710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beaumont, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 125,901
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,323
• Household income: $69,756
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 596.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.16%
• Current HPI: 167.8109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-05-16 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $145,900 BBOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $149,999 BBOR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $154,900 BBOR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $154,900 BBOR
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $159,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $169,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $179,000 BBOR
• 2019-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-09-13 Listed $139,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,210 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.