445 20th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$84,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1910 1,975 sqft lot Est $123k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Ultra-High Yield Duplex - 20.27% Cap Rate at $84,900! or Owner occupied with mortgage paid by the tenant with cash flow! Welcome to this turnkey 3/2 duplex (5 beds, 2 baths, 1,760 sq ft) at 445 20th St, Niagara Falls, NY 14301 is fully tenant-occupied with separate mechanics and electrics, generating $23,400 gross annual income ($950 upper, $1,000 lower). Priced at $84,900 for an stellar cap rate, ideal for immediate cash flow. The lower unit has two bedrooms, a dining room, living room and great size kitchen. Recent updates include one new hot water tank, one new furnace. Fenced yard, downtown location near amenities, perfect house hack or portfolio gem. Niagara Falls 14301 duplexes un

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Turnkey duplex
• Fenced yard

Tags

• TURNKEY DUPLEX
• SEPARATE MECHANICS
• FENCED YARD
• DOWNTOWN LOCATION
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is a 2-unit multi-family building; Unit 1 currently rents for $1,000 (3-bed, 1-bath); Unit 2 currently rents for $950 (2-bed, 1-bath); Owner pays trash collection and water; Operating expenses include maintenance, trash, and water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Two-story building; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Fence; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (in one unit); Formal dining room (both units include formal dining); Standard kitchen appliances include a gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One unit with 3 bedrooms; One unit with 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bath in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas and electric meters for each unit (2 gas meters, 2 electric meters)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $84,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$123,200) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $576/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,367/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $85k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.15%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
541 20th St	0.19mi	5/2.0	1,917 (+9%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	76
420 18th St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,632 (-7%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	72
2254 Grand Ave	0.47mi	5/2.0	1,748 (-1%)	8mo	$149,000	$85	70
1968 Cudaback Ave	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,848 (+5%)	8mo	$20,000	$11	63
614 20th St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-11%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	63
2615 Ferry Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (+5%)	6mo	$115,000	$62	63
555 25th St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-8%)	7mo	$128,000	$79	59
2449 Grand Ave	0.51mi	5/2.0	1,918 (+9%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	58
609 24th St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+14%)	4mo	$140,000	$70	52
2219 Cudaback Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+14%)	8mo	$80,000	$40	51
2219 Walnut Ave	0.26mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,023 (+15%)	4mo	$62,500	$31	50
2459 La Salle Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+9%)	2mo	$160,000	$83	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $59,722
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $146,945
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 46%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$2,368
Total (2 units)			$2,367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.40mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.57mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    status Active
16. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-07
    listed $84,900 Active
18. 2024-07-03
    listed $84,900 Active
19. 2024-07-03
    historical
20. 2024-01-26
    listed $99,000 Active
21. 2024-01-05
    historical
22. 2023-07-05
    listed $110,000 Active
23. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus $43,000 Closed Sale or Rented
24. 2021-10-30
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
25. 2021-10-22
    price $45,000
26. 2021-10-11
    listed $50,000 Active
27. 2020-01-16
    soldstatus $15,000
28. 2018-02-15
    historical
29. 2017-05-15
    listed $29,900 Active
30. 2005-09-09
    soldstatus $25,000
31. 2004-11-22
    soldstatus $30,900
32. 2004-11-04
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,850 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,850 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $13,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,206
• After-tax cash flow: $10,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+506.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-07-03 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-05 Listed $110,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-12-30 Sold (MLS) $43,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-11 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-15 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,850 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.