Callaway - Limited Series Plan · Ellenton, FL 34222

$193,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Manufactured · 152 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.5

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a stunning, brand-new Cavco Home in the Callaway Floor Plan, a 2-bedroom, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1,565 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Located in Ellenton FL, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and luxury amenities. The kitchen boasts an impressive amount of countertop space and storage, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Listed 151 days

🏗️ New construction. The $193,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $195,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $193k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 482 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,525 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,000
• List price: $193,000
• Delta: -1.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Quail Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,425 (-9%)	0mo	$76,000	$53	75
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,606 (+3%)	6mo	$150,000	$93	72
180 Nightingale Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,504 (-4%)	4mo	$214,900	$143	70
17 Meadowlark Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-3%)	4mo	$140,000	$93	69
1 Meadow Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,375 (-12%)	4mo	$219,900	$160	66
99 Meadow Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	8mo	$120,000	$85	62
89 Whipporwill Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,378 (-12%)	0mo	$170,000	$123	61
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	7mo	$140,000	$104	59
73 Whipporwill Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$152	59
137 Osprey Cir	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	7mo	$190,000	$141	54
146 Nightingale Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-10%)	8mo	$265,000	$189	50
3449 71st Ave E	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	5mo	$268,000	$191	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-46,866
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-60,294
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 105 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 52.5 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $179,500 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 42 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 482
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $160,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-173	+0% $-241	+5% $-308	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-299	+0% $-241	+5% $-182	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-143	-0.5pp $-191	base $-241	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 Amelo Ave Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$1,499	$0.99	41d	1	0.18mi
205 S Utrecht St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,599	$1.10	46d	1	0.19mi
227 Endhoven St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,499	$1.11	46d	1	0.21mi
195 Denmark Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,699	$1.16	17d	1	0.24mi
311 Holland St Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,499	$0.96	46d	1	0.25mi
610 Riverview Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,699	$1.09	15d	1	0.35mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,275	$2.00	20d	1	0.48mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,275	$2.00	10d	1	0.48mi
482 Outer Dr Unit 1 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,200	$1.55	55d	1	0.50mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	144d	1	0.50mi
6232 25th St E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2141	$2,900	$1.35	10d	1	0.54mi
6812 Coconut Grove Cir Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	127d	1	0.66mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,397	$2.51	2d	56	0.76mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$1,957	$1.70	0d	39	0.76mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	123d	1	0.79mi
3547 Vine Trl Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1669	$1,599	$0.96	45d	1	0.81mi
3540 Vine Trl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,533	$1.13	27d	1	0.83mi
3539 Vine Trl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,637	$1.12	7d	1	0.83mi
3617 Campari Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,633	$1.12	36d	1	0.85mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	162d	1	0.94mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,999	$1.60	10d	1	1.00mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	155d	1	1.02mi
5113 Tidewater Preserve Blvd Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2249	$4,000	$1.78	10d	1	1.04mi
5117 Tidewater Preserve Blvd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1731	$3,395	$1.96	55d	1	1.04mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	10d	1	1.05mi
4103 Rocky Fork Ter Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,735	$1.32	2d	1	1.07mi
4103 Rocky Fork Ter Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,795	$1.37	1d	1	1.07mi
3550 58th Pl E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,416	$1.64	2d	42	1.20mi
1030 Overlook Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2055	$4,000	$1.95	55d	1	1.21mi
1030 Overlook Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$4,500	$2.19	119d	1	1.21mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	164d	1	1.22mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$5,000	$2.86	10d	1	1.28mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,226	$2.18	7d	15	1.41mi
1030 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,100	$1.82	10d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $193,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,564 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Callaway - Limited Series

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $193,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $193,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $193,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $193,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $193,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $193,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $193,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $193,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $193,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $193,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $193,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $193,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $193,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $193,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $193,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $193,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $193,000 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $193,000 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $193,000 Active 127 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $193,000 Active 126 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $193,000 Active 125 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $193,000 Active 124 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $193,000 Active 123 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $193,000 Active 122 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $193,000 Active 121 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $193,000 Active 120 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $193,000 Active 119 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $193,000 Active 118 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $193,000 Active 117 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $193,000 Active 116 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $193,000 Active 115 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $193,000 Active 114 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $193,000 Active 113 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $193,000 Active 112 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $193,000 Active 111 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $193,000 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $193,000 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $193,000 Active 108 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $193,000 Active 107 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $193,000 Active 106 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $193,000 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $193,000 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $193,000 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $193,000 Active 99 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $193,000 Active 97 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $193,000 Active 96 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $193,000 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $193,000 Active 91 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $193,000 Active 90 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $193,000 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,517
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through interior updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blackburn Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $193,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,564 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Callaway - Limited Series