99 S Fairway Dr · The Hideout, PA 18436

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1976 0.36 ac lot $109/sqft · 34% below area Est $295k · 32% under $194/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper opportunity on the golf course in The Hideout, a four-season, amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos. Featuring a NEW ROOF (2023), this home offers great potential with a unique multi-level layout and a rare triple-tier screened-in porch setup overlooking the course. The upper level includes a spacious living room with hardwood floors, brick fireplace, and access to the top rear screened porch, along with a primary bedroom featuring a private bathroom. The middle level offers a comfortable family room, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to the second screened porch. The walk-out lower level includes a den, laundry area, and garage. With strong bones and a desirable golf course setting, this property is ready for your vision and updates. Home is being sold AS-IS. Please note: the driveway is currently encroaching on the neighboring property; the seller is in the process of addressing this issue.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($991/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in The Hideout — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#668 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,810
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -32.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 S Fairway Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+4%)	1mo	$279,000	$146	88
2988 Wedge Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-5%)	1mo	$248,000	$142	76
2894 S Fairway Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-10%)	2mo	$305,000	$185	72
123 N Fairway Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,762 (-4%)	1mo	$257,000	$146	66
278 North Gate Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,816 (-1%)	4mo	$315,000	$173	66
288 S Fairway Dr Lot 4101	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-2%)	6mo	$330,000	$183	65
268 S Fairway Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$120	64
14 Par Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-8%)	2mo	$299,000	$177	63
2941 S Fairway Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,993 (+8%)	4mo	$549,900	$276	62
2745 Boulder Rd #143	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,691 (-8%)	3mo	$239,000	$141	58
3502 Chestnut Hill Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,892 (+3%)	6mo	$167,500	$89	56
157 Boulder Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,094 (+14%)	0mo	$240,000	$115	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $114,283
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $332,706
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $139	+0% $83	+5% $26	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $0	+0% $83	+5% $165	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $133	base $83	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 949-char remark

   Show marketing remark (949 chars)

   Fixer upper opportunity on the golf course in The Hideout, a four-season, amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos. Featuring a NEW ROOF (2023), this home offers great potential with a unique multi-level layout and a rare triple-tier screened-in porch setup overlooking the course. The upper level includes a spacious living room with hardwood floors, brick fireplace, and access to the top rear screened porch, along with a primary bedroom featuring a private bathroom. The middle level offers a comfortable family room, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to the second screened porch. The walk-out lower level includes a den, laundry area, and garage. With strong bones and a desirable golf course setting, this property is ready for your vision and updates. Home is being sold AS-IS. Please note: the driveway is currently encroaching on the neighboring property; the seller is in the process of addressing this issue.

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $199,900 Active 949-char remark

   Show marketing remark (949 chars)

   Fixer upper opportunity on the golf course in The Hideout, a four-season, amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos. Featuring a NEW ROOF (2023), this home offers great potential with a unique multi-level layout and a rare triple-tier screened-in porch setup overlooking the course. The upper level includes a spacious living room with hardwood floors, brick fireplace, and access to the top rear screened porch, along with a primary bedroom featuring a private bathroom. The middle level offers a comfortable family room, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to the second screened porch. The walk-out lower level includes a den, laundry area, and garage. With strong bones and a desirable golf course setting, this property is ready for your vision and updates. Home is being sold AS-IS. Please note: the driveway is currently encroaching on the neighboring property; the seller is in the process of addressing this issue.

3. 1994-08-10
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,985 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$524
• After-tax cash flow: $1,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — The Hideout

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #668
• US rank: #6516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+185.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $199,900 PWMLS
• 1994-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,985 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.