2509 E Bogey Dr · Perezville, TX 78572

$79,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 396 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 2010 3,000 sqft lot $202/sqft · 54% above area Est $90k · 11% under $35/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience quiet living in this adorable, well-maintained 2010 park model located in the gated 55+ community of Hidden Valley Ranch, near Howling Trails Golf Course and community amenities. This move-in-ready home features high ceilings, a spacious kitchen with ample counter space, and a bright living room with large front windows that provide abundant natural light. The main bathroom offers a step-in shower and single vanity, while the bedroom easily accommodates a queen bed with generous walk-around space. A detached Texas room adds a second sleeping area complete with a full bathroom and laundry room, ideal for guests or added privacy. Outside, enjoy a tucked-away private patio with a corner partition fence for added seclusion. The golf cart garage also allows space for a workshop or extra storage. A charming wood deck provides access to the main home and offers seating for two, making it the perfect spot to relax and unwind. Call and schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Wood deck
• Detached texas room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DETACHED TEXAS ROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO
• GOLF CART GARAGE
• WOOD DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($861 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.9% in Perezville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#743 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-5,236
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $716
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $171	+0% $149	+5% $126	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $115	+0% $149	+5% $183	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $169	base $149	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-01-12
    listed $79,900 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Experience quiet living in this adorable, well-maintained 2010 park model located in the gated 55+ community of Hidden Valley Ranch, near Howling Trails Golf Course and community amenities. This move-in-ready home features high ceilings, a spacious kitchen with ample counter space, and a bright living room with large front windows that provide abundant natural light. The main bathroom offers a step-in shower and single vanity, while the bedroom easily accommodates a queen bed with generous walk-around space. A detached Texas room adds a second sleeping area complete with a full bathroom and laundry room, ideal for guests or added privacy. Outside, enjoy a tucked-away private patio with a corner partition fence for added seclusion. The golf cart garage also allows space for a workshop or extra storage. A charming wood deck provides access to the main home and offers seating for two, making it the perfect spot to relax and unwind. Call and schedule a private showing today!

18. 2007-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$827
• − Management: −$827
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Perezville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #743
• US rank: #13748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $79,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2007-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.